{"id":352985,"date":"2025-06-17T12:03:41","date_gmt":"2025-06-17T16:03:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=352985"},"modified":"2025-06-17T12:03:42","modified_gmt":"2025-06-17T16:03:42","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-diamondbacks-june-17-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-diamondbacks-june-17-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays vs. Diamondbacks prop picks June 17: Bet on Guerrero, Suarez to drive offence"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game series at Rogers Centre on Tuesday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Brandon Pfaadt (8-4, 5.50 ERA) has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, and he&#8217;s struggled the most in road starts. Toronto is 9-1 in its past 10 home games, with series wins over the Philadelphia Phillies and San Diego Padres.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Diamondbacks for June 17, with predictions on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/eugenio_suarez\/batting-stats\">Eugenio Suarez<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Diamondbacks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-106)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto&#8217;s offence should be able to get to Pfaadt. I mean, pretty much everybody else has.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pfaadt has the third-worst expected batting average (.331) and the fifth-worst expected ERA (7.22) in the majors. He has a 7.80 ERA over his past seven starts, so the nightmarish xERA is holding up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the road, Pfaadt has allowed 28 runs in seven starts. Toronto&#8217;s offence has no excuse tonight, and Guerrero should be one of the key offensive drivers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m always hesitant to back Guerrero over 1.5 total bases because he walks a lot (89th percentile, per Baseball Savant) and has an underwhelming .414 SLG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But from the No. 2 spot in the Blue Jays&#8217; order, Guerrero has excelled at finding a way on base and coming around to score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He has 1+ runs in 38 of 70 games (54.3%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Guerrero&#8217;s xBA (.321) ranks second in the majors behind only Aaron Judge. Vladdy is also seventh in MLB in xwOBA (.407).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In the range of even money, I think there&#8217;s plenty of value on this prop given the compelling matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Since the start of May, Guerrero has scored in 26 of 40 games, posting a .385 OBP in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:114901\">Embed: #114901<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Suarez over 1.5 total bases (+130):<\/strong> Suarez has a lot of all-or-nothing in his swing profile, but he usually only needs one good hack to cash this bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The third baseman is only batting .233, but he has a .527 SLG with 21 home runs (fifth in MLB).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Entering tonight, Suarez has homered in three of his past four games and is 8-5 vs. this prop in June.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chris Bassitt has a low walk rate (5.5%, 86th percentile) and a league-average K rate (22.5%, 53rd percentile), so Suarez should have an opportunity or two to barrel something up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Suarez is 3-for-8 with a home run and two doubles in his career vs. Bassitt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays picks made at 11:45 a.m. ET on 06\/17\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays open a three-game series at Rogers Centre on Tuesday night against the Arizona Diamondbacks. The pregame narrative: Brandon Pfaadt (8-4, 5.50 ERA) has been one of the worst pitchers in baseball this year, and he&#8217;s struggled the most in road starts. Toronto is 9-1 in its past 10 home games, with [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":353014,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-352985","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Diamondbacks: June 17 MLB betting | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Diamondbacks for June 17, 2025. 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