A pair of leadoff hitters has my attention for Saturday’s MLB prop bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Today’s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Jackson Holliday has really turned things around and is leading a suddenly resurgent Baltimore Orioles squad. J.P. Crawford, meanwhile, is getting on base at an impressive clip and should see the run production follow.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Check out my best MLB prop bets for June 7, featuring a prediction on Jasson Dominguez.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Best bet: Holliday over 1.5 total bases (+100)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n Holliday moved up the the Orioles’ leadoff spot on an indefinite basis last month, and his numbers since then back up the move:<\/p>\n\n\n\n He’s still not batting quite like a typical leadoff hitter, though, with a 5.3% walk rate (19th percentile, per Baseball Savant). In fact, he’s only walked twice in 84 plate appearances since the lineup change.<\/p>\n\n\n\n My initial thought was to bet on Holliday to score a run, but the -112 price wasn’t as enticing when you consider his lack of walks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n It’s also worth noting that Athletics starter Luis Severino ranks in the 71st percentile for walk rate (6.9%) and the 14th percentile for strikeout rate (16.5%), so there’s a good chance Holliday will get something to hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The venue, Sutter Health Park in Sacramento, also helps. According to Baseball Savant, it’s the most offence-friendly park in the majors this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n You don’t have to tell that to Severino, whose home\/road splits are a real Jekyll-and-Hyde situation:<\/p>\n\n\n\n Key stat:<\/strong> The left-hitting Holliday has a .474 SLG and a 129 wRC+ vs. righties this year. By comparison, he has a .349 SLG and 88 wRC+ vs. lefties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Crawford over 0.5 runs (-118)<\/strong>: Crawford is cruising right now, batting 13-for-27 (.481) in his past seven games with four walks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n He’s only scored in three of those matchups, but I’ll gladly buy in on the opportunities he’s creating from Seattle’s leadoff spot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Even if Crawford’s bat cools a bit, he’s got an elite eye at the plate and should find another way on base. His 15.1% walk rate ranks in the 96th percentile in the majors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Angels starter Jack Kochanowicz has issued 18 walks over his past five starts. And left-hitting players (like Crawford) have a .313\/.392\/.521 slash line against him this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Dominguez under 0.5 hits (+105)<\/strong>: Garrett Crochet is on the mound for the Red Sox tonight, which had me looking for someone to fade on the Yankees’ side. I think Dominguez fits the bill.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The switch-hitting outfielder is weaker from his right side, batting .143 with a 29.3% K rate vs. lefties in 49 career games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Dominguez has never faced Crochet, whose 1.98 ERA and AL-high 101 strikeouts have him firmly in Cy Young conversations.<\/p>\n\n\n\n I expect Crochet to be able to keep the swing-happy 22-year-old guess. Four of Crochet’s five pitches are above-average in whiff rate, and Dominguez whiffs on 30.8% of his swings (13th percentile).<\/p>\n\n\n\n MLB prop picks made at 12:32 p.m. ET on 06\/07\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":" A pair of leadoff hitters has my attention for Saturday’s MLB prop bets. Today’s MLB props narrative: Jackson Holliday has really turned things around and is leading a suddenly resurgent Baltimore Orioles squad. J.P. Crawford, meanwhile, is getting on base at an impressive clip and should see the run production follow. Check out my best […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":351480,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-351526","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nMLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n