{"id":351288,"date":"2025-06-06T12:06:45","date_gmt":"2025-06-06T16:06:45","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=351288"},"modified":"2025-06-06T12:06:45","modified_gmt":"2025-06-06T16:06:45","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-twins-june-6-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-twins-june-6-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays vs. Twins prop picks June 6: Look for Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to cash in"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>After a terrific homestand, the Toronto Blue Jays are in Minnesota on Friday night to face the Twins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto went 6-1 in its past two series at Rogers Centre and will now face a Minnesota squad that just wrapped up a 10-game road trip. Bailey Ober has been in a nice groove for the Twins, who are favourites in Friday&#8217;s game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Twins for June 6, with a fade of Ober and a plus-money pick on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Twins<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Ober under 4.5 Ks (-136)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Blue Jays are dialled at the plate right now. After they thrashed the Phillies, 9-1, on Thursday, Philadelphia starter Jesus Luzardo wondered aloud whether he was tipping pitches.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Look at the seven-game homestand Toronto just put together on the offensive side of things:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>7.6 runs\/game<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.328 BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.972 OPS<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>10.9 K%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>9.8 BB%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>With numbers like that, the Jays are a threat to chase any starting pitcher out of a game early. But even if that doesn&#8217;t happen, their strikeout rate is low enough that I don&#8217;t trust Ober to clear tonight&#8217;s line regardless.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ober has gone under 4.5 Ks in four straight starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He did dice the Blue Jays last year, tallying 18 Ks over two starts, but his stuff hasn&#8217;t been nearly as baffling for hitters in 2025. His K% is down 8.3 percentage points (to 18.6%) and his whiff rate is down 3.9 percentage points (to 25.1%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ober is still garnering an elite chase rate \u2014 94th percentile, per Baseball Savant \u2014 but I don&#8217;t see that as being much of a problem. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto has the highest chase contact rate in the majors (62.4%, where the league average is 55.1%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Toronto has the lowest K rate in the majors this season (18.2%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:114560\">Embed: #114560<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Guerrero over 1.5 total bases (+125):<\/strong> Expected data only gets you so far, but there&#8217;s enough of a chasm between that and Guerrero&#8217;s actual results that I feel compelled to buy in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over his past 15 games, Guerrero is only 5-10 vs. this prop. But that number really should be a lot better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In that span, Guerrero&#8217;s slash line is .224\/.328\/.362. But his <em>expected<\/em> slash line is .367\/.453\/.659.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He has a 96.1 mph average exit velocity in those 15 games, as well as a 61.5% hard-hit rate. Only Shohei Ohtani has a higher hard-hit rate than that over the full season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Guerrero is adept at drawing walks, which is always a risk. But Ober&#8217;s 88th-percentile walk rate (5.2%) lessens that concern.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you expect Guerrero&#8217;s misfortune to turn around at some point, this is a fair price to buy the perceived dip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 06\/06\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>After a terrific homestand, the Toronto Blue Jays are in Minnesota on Friday night to face the Twins. The pregame narrative: Toronto went 6-1 in its past two series at Rogers Centre and will now face a Minnesota squad that just wrapped up a 10-game road trip. Bailey Ober has been in a nice groove [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":351321,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-351288","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Twins: June 6 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Twins for June 6, 2025. 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