With the NBA Finals set to begin this week, let’s take a closer look at the unexpected matchup between the Oklahoma City Thunder and Indiana Pacers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The latest:<\/strong> OKC, coming off its second season atop the Western Conference, was believed to be a championship-calibre squad all season long. Indiana, however, is a stunning Finals entrant as the No. 4 seed in the East. Both teams are deep and accustomed to playing at a frenetic pace.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Check out our Pacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals betting preview and odds for the series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n OKC is a massive favourite to win, and it’s easy to see why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After an NBA-high 68 wins in the regular season, the Thunder have remained dominant in the playoffs and posted a +11.2 net rating (for context, in the regular season, they were the only team with a net rating above 10.0).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Despite the presence of a clear favourite and underdog, this NBA Finals matchup isn’t a clash of styles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Thunder were expected to be here. The Pacers were not. But both have earned their spots by taking care of the basketball, rolling deep lineups and wearing down their opponents with fast-paced play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n As -667 favourites, the Thunder’s implied probability to win this series is 87.0%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n That’s far from the norm in a championship series, but it speaks to how well the Thunder have performed all season long.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Indiana is no stranger to the underdog role, mind you. The Pacers weren’t expected to knock out the Knicks or the top-seeded Cavaliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Of its 12 postseason wins so far, Indiana was the underdog for seven of them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n Unless you’re eyeing the Pacers to pull off a hefty upset, it makes more sense to scope out some other series markets:<\/p>\n\n\n\n NBA odds as of 3:30 p.m. ET on 06\/02\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n Youth doesn’t always mean inexperience, and OKC is proof of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n After claiming the No. 1 seed in a loaded Western Conference last season, the Thunder entered 2024-25 as the youngest team in the NBA (24.15 years old).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Entering the Finals, OKC’s average age is 25.33 years, per NBA.com, making it the fourth-youngest team ever to reach this stage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n The Thunder play with a youthful energy, especially on defence. They’re leading the postseason in turnovers forced (18.0\/game), defensive rating (104.7) and percentage of points off turnovers (20.3%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, fresh off an MVP coronation, gives OKC the best individual performer in this matchup. With two rotational 7-footers, the Thunder also have more size than the Pacers. And let’s not forget how menacing Alex Caruso and Lu Dort are as wing defenders. <\/p>\n\n\n\n During the regular season, the Thunder went 2-0 vs. the Pacers. OKC won their most recent matchup, 132-111, at home on March 29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n If the Pacers are going to pull this off \u2014 and it’s a sizeable if \u2014 I think they have to do two things really, really well.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 1. Keep turnovers to a minimum.<\/strong> As mentioned, OKC is as good as it gets in terms of forcing turnovers and capitalizing on them. But the Pacers have done well to limit their gaffes in that regard, posting the third-lowest turnover rate in the postseason (12.7%). Indiana can’t afford to cough up many easy buckets in this series, especially in the non-SGA minutes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n 2. Over-index on 3-point shooting.<\/strong> Only 39.1% of the Pacers’ field goal attempts have come from beyond the arc, which ranks 11th of 16 playoff teams. But Indiana has been No. 1 in the postseason in 3PT% (40.1). OKC is 13th in 3PT% (33.6), so this is a rare area where the Pacers have a distinct advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Protect the ball and take more shots from deep. That’s the basic formula that gives the Pacers their best shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (Thunder)<\/strong> Gilgeous-Alexander has -5,000 odds to lead the Finals in scoring, which is one way to illustrate his importance in this matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The regular season scoring champ already has 10 playoff games with 30-plus points and five-plus assists. Since 1963, only LeBron James and Michael Jordan have ever had more in a single postseason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n During the regular season, Gilgeous-Alexander scored 45 and 33 points, respectively, in his two matchups vs. Indiana. He also had seven rebounds and eight assists in both games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Tyrese Haliburton (Pacers)<\/strong> Haliburton’s single-greatest moment of the 2025 postseason was his game-tying buzzer-beater against the Knicks in Game 1 of the ECF. Can he top that in the Finals?<\/p>\n\n\n\n People often use the term “clutch” anecdotally, but there are ways to quantify it, too. In the NBA, clutch time refers to the final five minutes of regulation or overtime when the score is within five points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Haliburton has an NBA-high 8.0 assist-to-turnover ratio in clutch time this postseason. But he’s been a cold-blooded shooter in the biggest moments all year long, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n Here’s another way to define Hali’s clutch gene, according to Tom Haberstroh on Substack: Haliburton is 12-for-14 this season on shots to tie or take the lead in the final two minutes. Sheesh.<\/p>\n\n\n\n OKC Thunder<\/strong> Indiana Pacers<\/strong> My pick: Thunder -2.5 games (-125)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n The star power, the size and even the depth. It’s all on OKC’s side.<\/p>\n\n\n\n No disrespect to the Pacers, but they fall short of the Thunder in all sorts of key areas. Indiana also has three wins this postseason in which it trailed by seven-plus points in the final minute. I don’t see anything like that happening against OKC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n The Thunder cashed this bet in the first round against Memphis and in the WCF against Minnesota. Having home-court advantage puts OKC in a great spot to win in four or five.<\/p>\n\n\n\nPacers vs. Thunder NBA Finals preview<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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NBA Finals preview: Series markets <\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Team<\/strong><\/td> Odds to win NBA Finals<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> OKC Thunder<\/td> -667<\/td><\/tr> Indiana Pacers<\/td> +425<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n Market<\/strong><\/td> Betting odds<\/strong><\/td><\/tr> Thunder -2.5<\/td> -125<\/td><\/tr> Pacers +2.5<\/td> -112<\/td><\/tr> Thunder -1.5<\/td> -313<\/td><\/tr> Pacers +1.5<\/td> +210<\/td><\/tr> Over 4.5 games<\/td> -455<\/td><\/tr> Under 4.5 games<\/td> +290<\/td><\/tr> Over 6.5 games<\/td> +320<\/td><\/tr> Under 6.5 games<\/td> -500<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n OKC’s case to win<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Indiana’s case to win<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
NBA Finals preview: Star spotlight<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Position: Point guard<\/strong>
’25 playoff stats:<\/strong> 29.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 6.9 assists, 85.7 FT%<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Position: Point guard<\/strong>
’25 playoff stats:<\/strong> <\/strong>18.8 points, 5.7 rebounds, 9.8 assists, nine double-doubles<\/p>\n\n\n\nBetting trends<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
– 60-35-4 ATS (1st in the NBA)
– 58-34-4 ATS in home games (2nd)
– 43-7 SU in home games (1st)
– Overs are 29-20-1 in home games (7th)
– 2-0 ATS vs. Indiana this year<\/p>\n\n\n\n
– 47-48-3 ATS (17th)
– 23-17-1 ATS as underdogs (5th)
– 22-19 SU as underdogs (2nd)
– Overs are 26-21-1 in road games (12th)
– Overs are 25-14-2 as underdogs (4th)<\/p>\n\n\n\nNBA Finals prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n