{"id":348379,"date":"2025-05-22T09:38:35","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T13:38:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=348379"},"modified":"2025-05-22T09:50:54","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T13:50:54","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-padres-may-22-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-padres-may-22-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Padres vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 22: Bet on Guerrero, Arraez to do damage in Thursday&#8217;s matinee"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>It&#8217;s getaway day for the Toronto Blue Jays, who look to complete a sweep of the San Diego Padres at Rogers Centre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto is 4-4 during this homestand thanks to a pair of shutout wins over San Diego. A win on Thursday would put the Blue Jays (24-24) back above .500 for the year and hand the Padres their sixth straight loss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays vs. Padres <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">prop picks<\/a> on May 22, featuring <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/luis_arraez\/batting-stats\">Luis Arraez<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Padres<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Best Bet<\/a>: Arraez over 1.5 hits (+163)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Arraez is still one of the most unique hitters in baseball. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The three-time reigning batting champ \u2014 with three different teams, mind you \u2014 rarely walks or strikes out. And he doesn&#8217;t hit the ball hard. But his contact quality is among the best in the bigs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Look at Arraez&#8217;s Baseball Savant percentile rankings to see what I&#8217;m talking about:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>100th-percentile K rate (1.7%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>99th-percentile squared-up rate (41.0%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>16th-percentile walk rate (5.0%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1st-percentile hard-hit rate (16.8%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Arraez is batting .301 this year with just three home runs to his name. He knows how to put good wood on the ball, but he&#8217;s rarely swinging for the fences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His price to go over 1.5 bases today is -105, but betting on a multi-hit game at +163 makes a lot more sense. Arraez has 15 games with over 1.5 bases this year &#8230; and 14 of those were multi-hit performances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>San Diego&#8217;s offence is ice cold, tallying just three runs during its five-game losing streak. But Arraez keeps chugging along.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The left-hitting infielder is on an eight-game hit streak, and he&#8217;s batting 17-for-48 (.354) over his past 11.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now he&#8217;ll wield a platoon advantage over Toronto starter Bowden Francis, who&#8217;s allowing a .306 xBA this year (sixth percentile).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Arraez is 38-for-116 (.368) against right-handed pitchers this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:114067\">Embed: #114067<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-110)<\/a>:<\/strong> This price looks like a bargain based on how Guerrero is performing right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here are his numbers over the past month (since April 23):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>20 runs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.400 OBP<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.889 OPS<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1+ runs in 18 of 24 games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>As much as I&#8217;d like to back Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+106), his propensity to reach with a walk is scaring me away. But that&#8217;s not an issue when you&#8217;re simply looking for the four-time all-star to score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Guerrero will face Padres righty Stephen Kolek, who throws a mix of sinkers, four-seamers and sliders more than 75.0% of the time against right-hitting players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Against those pitch types this year, Guerrero has a .348\/.447\/.545 slash line in 132 plate appearances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Padres vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:13 a.m. ET on 05\/22\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"thestar\">Looking to get started? <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNzQxMyZsPTEzNTI3NDExJnA9MjMyNDM%3D\">Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s getaway day for the Toronto Blue Jays, who look to complete a sweep of the San Diego Padres at Rogers Centre. The pregame narrative: Toronto is 4-4 during this homestand thanks to a pair of shutout wins over San Diego. A win on Thursday would put the Blue Jays (24-24) back above .500 for [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":348385,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-348379","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Padres: May 22 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Padres for May 22, 2025. 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