{"id":348377,"date":"2025-05-22T11:42:51","date_gmt":"2025-05-22T15:42:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=348377"},"modified":"2025-05-22T11:42:51","modified_gmt":"2025-05-22T15:42:51","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-22-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-22-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets May 22: Isaac Paredes, Cedric Mullins have value at the plate"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\">It&#8217;s a light MLB slate on Thursday, and my three picks come from the five-game evening slate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: In the final game of the night, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/isaac_paredes\/batting-stats\">Isaac Paredes<\/a> and the Houston Astros look to pounce on a pitcher making his season debut. Elsewhere, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/aj_smith-shawver\/pitching-stats\">AJ Smith-Shawver<\/a> will try to mow down the Washington Nationals for the second time in as many weeks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\">Check out the best MLB prop bets for Wednesday, May 22, which includes a prediction on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/cedric_mullins\/batting-stats\">Cedric Mullins<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Paredes over 0.5 runs (+132)<\/strong>&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Paredes is known as a pull-happy slugger, but his game is a bit more well-rounded than that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last year, Paredes had a 93rd-percentile walk rate (11.9%), per Baseball Savant. And his 13.9% walk rate so far this year is even higher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He can still mash, though, tagging four home runs in his past four games. The 2024 all-star has a .308\/.419\/.712 slash line since May 7 (14 games).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Paredes started the year in the No. 2 spot in the Astros&#8217; lineup before sliding to No. 3. But Houston moved him back to No. 2 a few games ago, which makes him an even more compelling pick to score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>George Kirby gets the ball for the Seattle Mariners tonight in his season debut. Kirby started the year on the injured list with shoulder inflammation and has since made a few rehab starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On Friday, in his most recent minor league outing, Kirby allowed four runs on 10 hits in 4.0 innings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, the whiff rate on his slider over his three rehab starts was just 15.4% \u2014 down from 26.9% last season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kirby is a talented pitcher, so I don&#8217;t want to make too much of those numbers. But he doesn&#8217;t seem to be entering tonight at his sharpest, and Paredes is on a hot streak that is too good to ignore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Over his past 14 games, Paredes is 10-4 against this prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:114079\">Embed: #114079<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Smith-Shawver over 5.5 Ks (+138)<\/strong>: The Washington Nationals can stack as many as eight left-hitting players in their batting order tonight against the right-hander AJ Smith-Shawver. But that&#8217;s not necessarily to their benefit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Smith-Shawver has enjoyed some notable reverse splits through seven outings this season:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>vs. LHHs:<\/strong> .154 BA, .471 OPS, 29.8 K%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>vs. RHHs:<\/strong> .297 BA, .814 OPS, 19.5 K%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Last Thursday, Smith-Shawver tossed 6.0 innings of two-hit ball against the Nationals, allowing just one unearned run while striking out six.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s 4-2 against this line in his past six starts. And he finished with exactly five Ks in both outliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mullins over 0.5 hits (-134):<\/strong> Mullins is having a so-so year at the plate, but this is a really playable price for him against a struggling pitcher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Boston Red Sox right-hander Lucas Giolito has allowed 25 hits and 16 runs through four starts. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Giolito&#8217;s opponents are batting .305 with an .861 OPS against him.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Mullins is 8-for-13 with a triple and three doubles against Giolito.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Though Mullins is only batting .236 overall this season, his .261 career BA against righties is a fairly respectable mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, the outfielder has cashed this bet in seven of his past 10 games, batting 11-for-38 (.289) in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 05\/22\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>It&#8217;s a light MLB slate on Thursday, and my three picks come from the five-game evening slate. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: In the final game of the night, Isaac Paredes and the Houston Astros look to pounce on a pitcher making his season debut. Elsewhere, AJ Smith-Shawver will try to mow down the Washington Nationals [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":348429,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-348377","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets May 22: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for May 22, 2025. 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