{"id":348230,"date":"2025-05-21T10:38:29","date_gmt":"2025-05-21T14:38:29","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=348230"},"modified":"2025-05-21T14:32:05","modified_gmt":"2025-05-21T18:32:05","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-padres-may-21-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-padres-may-21-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Padres vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 21: Back Jackson Merrill, Vladimir Guerrero Jr."},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Toronto Blue Jays look for a series win over the San Diego Padres at Rogers Centre on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto is a slight home favourite behind struggling ace Kevin Gausman after blanking San Diego in the series opener. Gausman (4.59 ERA) pitches opposite Randy Vasquez, who has recently over-indexed against a trio of bottom-feeding teams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out my Blue Jays vs. Padres prop picks on May 21, featuring <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/jackson_merrill\/batting-stats\">Jackson Merrill<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Padres<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: Guerrero to score (+110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We&#8217;re at the point where I&#8217;ll look at Guerrero props on a nightly basis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">It took the $500-million man a while to heat up, but he&#8217;s found a rhythm in May, posting a .328\/.447\/.508 slash line and scoring a run in 13 of 17 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vladdy went 1-for-3 last night, hitting a towering home run in the first inning to open the scoring. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr. goes up the ladder and turns on one \ud83d\udcaa <a href=\"https:\/\/t.co\/ayjYiAzuvP\">pic.twitter.com\/ayjYiAzuvP<\/a><\/p>&mdash; MLB (@MLB) <a href=\"https:\/\/x.com\/MLB\/status\/1924969082849251616?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 20, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.x.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m confident he can get after Vasquez on Wednesday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The righty has a 2.12 ERA across three starts this month but pitched against the Los Angeles Angels, Colorado Rockies and Pittsburgh Pirates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Those squads rank bottom three in batting average and bottom seven in wRC+.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And even in those games, Vasquez got touched up. He allowed 23 base runners but somehow managed to keep the opposition to four combined runs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Venezuelan&#8217;s season-long advanced metrics paint a more accurate picture. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2nd percentile K rate (13.3)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>7th percentile walk rate (11.7)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>11th percentile xERA (5.61)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>19th percentile xBA (.274)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I was debating taking the over on Guerrero&#8217;s 1.5 base total, but think this is a safer play. Vasquez doesn&#8217;t miss bats and issues a ton of free passes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">There should be plenty of opportunities for Guerrero \u2014 Toronto&#8217;s No. 2 hitter \u2014 to get aboard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Guerrero has scored a run in seven of his last eight games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:114055\">Embed: #114055<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Merrill 1+ RBI (+110):<\/strong> Merrill bats cleanup for the Padres behind Fernando Tatis Jr, Luis Arraez and Manny Machado. There are few better spots for run production in all of baseball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And last year&#8217;s NL Rookie of the Year runner-up has been scorching since coming off the IL in early May:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.348\/.375\/.500<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4 XBH<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>7 RBI<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The left-handed hitting Merrill (.319 career BA vs. RHP) has a platoon advantage against Gausman, who allowed three homers, six runs and a season-high 10 hits in his last outing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Arraez, Tatis and Machado are a combined 21-for-46 (.456) against the righty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Padres vs. Blue Jays picks made at 10:43 a.m. ET on 05\/21\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays look for a series win over the San Diego Padres at Rogers Centre on Wednesday. The pregame narrative: Toronto is a slight home favourite behind struggling ace Kevin Gausman after blanking San Diego in the series opener. Gausman (4.59 ERA) pitches opposite Randy Vasquez, who has recently over-indexed against a trio [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":348235,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-348230","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Padres: May 21 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Padres for May 21, 2025. 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