{"id":347564,"date":"2025-05-18T12:12:09","date_gmt":"2025-05-18T16:12:09","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=347564"},"modified":"2025-05-18T12:12:09","modified_gmt":"2025-05-18T16:12:09","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-18-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-18-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets May 18: Back Mets&#8217; Alonso, Soto to dominate Yankees"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A healthy dose of the Subway Series makes its way into my MLB prop bets for Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/nolan_arenado\/batting-stats\">Nolan Arenado<\/a> is having an uncharacteristically poor season, but he should be able to take advantage of a plus matchup. Later on, I&#8217;m backing New York Mets sluggers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/pete_alonso\/batting-stats\">Pete Alonso<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/juan_soto\/batting-stats\">Juan Soto<\/a> to clear their total bases props.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my MLB prop bets for May 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Arenado over 1.5 total bases (+130)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This isn&#8217;t the type of season people have come to expect from Arenado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Cardinals slugger&#8217;s .242 batting average and .379 OPS are the lowest marks of his career, and way below his career averages of .284 and .853, respectively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If there&#8217;s anything that can get the third baseman going, though, it&#8217;s a date with Kansas City Royals pitcher Michael Wacha.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wacha is enjoying a solid campaign, combining a 2.96 ERA with a 3.10 FIP. But he has struggled mightily in the past versus Arenado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 19 at-bats versus Wacha, Arenado is batting:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.474 AVG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4 home runs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Those are undeniable numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> No batter has more career home runs against the pitcher they&#8217;re facing today than Arenado.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:113913\">Embed: #113913<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Alonso over 1.5 total bases (+132):<\/strong> Here&#8217;s a hitter who&#8217;s not struggling at all this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Alonso is hitting for contact and power this year. He&#8217;s batting .308 with a .574 SLG, and the advanced numbers paint an even rosier picture:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>98th percentile xwOBA (.432)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>94th percentile xBA (.304)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>98th percentile xSLG (.616)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Alonso is hitting the cover off the ball and should be able to do damage against Max Fried.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Fried combines a 1.11 ERA with a 2.85 FIP, but he has not been able to figure out Alonso. Here&#8217;s how the Mets slugger has fared across 36 at-bats:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>10 hits<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2 home runs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.472 SLG<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Alonso has cashed this wager in six of his last 14 games, including yesterday&#8217;s contest against the New York Yankees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Soto over 1.5 total bases (+160):<\/strong> Soto didn&#8217;t have to move far, but there has been a bit of an adjustment period for the talented outfielder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The superstar is slashing .252\/.386\/.454, which is well below his career averages across the board. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His play has been improving since the calendar flipped to May, as he&#8217;s batting .275 with two doubles and five home runs this month.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Like his teammate Alonso, Soto has done well for himself against Fried. Soto has a .333 batting average in 27 at-bats versus Fried.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ex-Yankees star hits second for the Mets, too, which never hurts when backing someone in this market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>MLB prop picks made at 12:04 p.m. ET on 05\/18\/2025<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A healthy dose of the Subway Series makes its way into my MLB prop bets for Saturday. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Nolan Arenado is having an uncharacteristically poor season, but he should be able to take advantage of a plus matchup. Later on, I&#8217;m backing New York Mets sluggers Pete Alonso and Juan Soto to [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":6,"featured_media":347568,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-347564","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets May 18: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for May 18, 2025. 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