{"id":347393,"date":"2025-05-17T14:55:52","date_gmt":"2025-05-17T18:55:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=347393"},"modified":"2025-05-17T14:55:52","modified_gmt":"2025-05-17T18:55:52","slug":"nuggets-vs-thunder-prop-picks-game-7","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nuggets-vs-thunder-prop-picks-game-7\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks Game 7: Fade Nikola Jokic, bet on Jalen Williams to contribute as a passer"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A back-and-forth series between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will be decided on Sunday afternoon in a Game 7 tilt at Paycom Center.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Nikola Jokic dropped 44 points in a losing effort the last time his Nuggets played at OKC, but a home win on Thursday kept the series going. The Thunder are 8.5-point favourites on Sunday and -110 favourites to win the NBA Finals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m fading Jokic while backing Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams in my Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks for Game 7 on May 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/basketball\/competitions\/10240\"><strong>Full NBA betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nba-injury-report-news\"><strong>NBA injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/top-players\"><strong>NBA player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/standings\"><strong>NBA standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Jokic under 8.5 assists (-154)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Was my first instinct to fade Jokic? Absolutely not, but this market is calling out to me.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Despite being the Nuggets&#8217; leader in assists this series, Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in all six games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He has cashed this under in eight straight playoff games dating back to the first round.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in seven straight games vs. OKC (since March).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>OKC allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season (24.6). They&#8217;ve only allowed 20.7 APG in the playoffs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>This isn&#8217;t the same Denver team that won the NBA Finals two years ago. Sure, the headliners of Jokic, Jamal Murray and Aaron Gordon are still in place, but there are fewer reliable scorers around them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That explains why Jokic has set career-highs in field-goal attempts, free-throw attempts, 3-point attempts and points this season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Denver has needed him to create more of his own offence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a do-or-die Game 7, who better for the Nuggets to run their offence through than a three-time MVP?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jokic should still have at least a handful of assists, but his passing volume hasn&#8217;t risen to a level where he should be clearing this mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to NBA.com, Jokic is averaging 14.7 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot) this series. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At that volume, he&#8217;d need his teammates to shoot north of 60.0% for over 8.5 assists to cash.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Jokic has gone under 8.5 assists in 14 of 25 playoff games since the start of the 2024 postseason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Game 7 prop predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Holmgren over 9.5 rebounds (-118):<\/strong> OKC brought in Isaiah Hartenstein this offseason for some much-needed size, but he&#8217;s not the only 7-footer in the rotation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Holmgren, listed at 7-foot-1, has been hauling in plenty of boards this postseason, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s averaging a team-high 10.8 rebounds this series, going 4-2 vs. this milestone.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Holmgren has averaged 10.1 RPG in 10 matchups vs. Denver this season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In Game 1 against Denver, Holmgren fouled out with just six rebounds in 28 minutes. But he has 11-plus rebounds in four of five games since, and no more than three fouls in any of those games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As long as Holmgren stays disciplined, I like his chances of cashing this bet. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Williams over 4.5 assists (-143):<\/strong> Williams is really going through it right now as a shooter, posting a 33.7 FG% this series. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s also coming off his worst game in the scoring department (six points on 3-of-16 shooting).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Williams is also coming off his <em>best<\/em> game as a passer. He dished 10 assists for the Thunder, marking the fourth time in five games that he&#8217;s cleared this mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So far in the playoffs, Williams is averaging 5.6 assists and has cashed this bet in seven of 10 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s also 7-2 against this prop in his past nine matchups against the Nuggets, averaging 6.4 assists in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;d make sense for J-Dub to take on more of a facilitating role in Game 7, given how poor the shooting numbers have been. With that in mind, this is a perfectly attainable number for him to hit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 2:48 p.m. ET 05\/17\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A back-and-forth series between the Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder will be decided on Sunday afternoon in a Game 7 tilt at Paycom Center. The pregame narrative: Nikola Jokic dropped 44 points in a losing effort the last time his Nuggets played at OKC, but a home win on Thursday kept the series going. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":347355,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,62],"tags":[12],"class_list":["post-347393","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-nba","tag-nba-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks: NBA Game 7 predictions | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Game 7 Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks. 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