{"id":346869,"date":"2025-05-16T14:38:37","date_gmt":"2025-05-16T18:38:37","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=346869"},"modified":"2025-05-16T14:38:38","modified_gmt":"2025-05-16T18:38:38","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16\/","title":{"rendered":"Tigers vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 16: Look for Detroit&#8217;s Greene to get to Francis"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The American League-leading Detroit Tigers are in Toronto on Friday night to face the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Bowden Francis (2-5, 5.40 ERA) worked a quality start in his most recent outing, but it&#8217;ll likely be an uphill battle tonight against a Tigers team that is 15-5 in its past 20 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Tigers on May 16, featuring Francis, Jack Flaherty and Riley Greene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Flaherty over 16.5 outs (-110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Tigers are one of the best early-season stories in baseball, as they&#8217;ve built off an unlikely postseason run from last year and currently own MLB&#8217;s best record (tied with the Dodgers).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Flaherty, who began 2024 with Detroit before getting traded, hasn&#8217;t done much to help the team the second time around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, he&#8217;s 0-5 in his past five starts, allowing 19 runs on 28 hits in that span (6.66 ERA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This might seem like a good spot to fade him, but I&#8217;m going to zag because Flaherty is still seeing a decent innings workload despite his struggles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in 6 of 8 starts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He&#8217;s averaging 15.4 outs per start.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In 18 starts with the Tigers last year (prior to the deadline deal to L.A.), Flaherty averaged 17.8 outs and went 15-3 against this prop line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When he&#8217;s in a groove, I know Tigers manager A.J. Hinch trusts him to eat innings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto&#8217;s offence has been fine \u2014 13th in wRC+ (101), 22nd in runs per game (3.98) \u2014 but not overpowering.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And though Detroit was off yesterday, its two best relievers had thrown on back-to-back days before that. Some length from Flaherty would be welcomed, and I think the Tigers will get it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Flaherty has held Toronto&#8217;s active lineup to 10-for-57 (.175) hitting with a .298 SLG and 20 Ks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Greene over 1.5 bases (-108):<\/strong> Greene is red hot right now, and he&#8217;ll have a platoon advantage against a struggling pitcher on Friday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In his past 19 games, Greene has averaged 2.6 bases while posting a .342\/.400\/.671 slash line.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Greene, who bats from the left side, has a .921 OPS vs. right-handed pitchers this year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Toronto&#8217;s Francis has allowed 28 hits and a .663 SLG in his past four starts (18.2 innings).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Greene&#8217;s weakness is that he&#8217;s a relatively high strikeout guy, with a 19th-percentile K rate, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Francis only has a 19th-percentile K rate as a pitcher \u2014 to go with a fifth-percentile xBA and xERA \u2014 so I&#8217;m not worried about him mowing Greene down.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Francis under 16.5 outs (-118):<\/strong> Francis is 4-4 against this outs prop, and I&#8217;ll gladly lean on the side of the under in a matchup like this.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Detroit is likely to deploy five or six lefties in its lineup tonight, creating plenty of mismatches for the struggling Francis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Handedness isn&#8217;t a trump card in its own right, but keep in mind that the Tigers have wielded a superb offence so far this season. They rank third in runs per game (5.55) and wRC+ (117).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Francis has a 6.25 xERA while allowing a .311 xBA. He&#8217;s also in the 20th percentile or worse in K rate, chase rate, hard-hit rate, barrel rate and ground-ball rate. Woof.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not a single Jays reliever has pitched on back-to-back days entering Friday, so there should be ample options to look to if Detroit starts roughing up Francis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Tigers vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 05\/16\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The American League-leading Detroit Tigers are in Toronto on Friday night to face the Blue Jays at Rogers Centre. The pregame narrative: Bowden Francis (2-5, 5.40 ERA) worked a quality start in his most recent outing, but it&#8217;ll likely be an uphill battle tonight against a Tigers team that is 15-5 in its past 20 [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":346741,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-346869","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers: May 16 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers for May 16, 2025. MLB betting odds and prop predictions for Friday&#039;s game in Toronto.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers: May 16 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers for May 16, 2025. MLB betting odds and prop predictions for Friday&#039;s game in Toronto.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Boost\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-05-16T18:38:37+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:modified_time\" content=\"2025-05-16T18:38:38+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2025\/05\/CP174547120-scaled.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jordan Horrobin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@JordanHorrobin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jordan Horrobin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16\/\",\"name\":\"Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers: May 16 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-05-16T18:38:37+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-05-16T18:38:38+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/8e0d7302b14f65be7f61f221a134fc9f\"},\"description\":\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers for May 16, 2025. MLB betting odds and prop predictions for Friday's game in Toronto.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/\",\"name\":\"The Boost\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/8e0d7302b14f65be7f61f221a134fc9f\",\"name\":\"Jordan Horrobin\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7764.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7764.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Jordan Horrobin\"},\"description\":\"Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles \u2014 especially for MLB markets or NFL\/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he\u2019ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\",\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/JordanHorrobin\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/author\/jordan-horrobinnorthstargaming-ca\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers: May 16 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets","description":"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers for May 16, 2025. MLB betting odds and prop predictions for Friday's game in Toronto.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers: May 16 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets","og_description":"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers for May 16, 2025. MLB betting odds and prop predictions for Friday's game in Toronto.","og_url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16\/","og_site_name":"The Boost","article_published_time":"2025-05-16T18:38:37+00:00","article_modified_time":"2025-05-16T18:38:38+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2560,"height":1707,"url":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2025\/05\/CP174547120-scaled.webp","type":"image\/webp"}],"author":"Jordan Horrobin","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@JordanHorrobin","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Jordan Horrobin","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16\/","url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16\/","name":"Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers: May 16 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-05-16T18:38:37+00:00","dateModified":"2025-05-16T18:38:38+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/8e0d7302b14f65be7f61f221a134fc9f"},"description":"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Tigers for May 16, 2025. MLB betting odds and prop predictions for Friday's game in Toronto.","inLanguage":"en-CA","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-tigers-may-16\/"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website","url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/","name":"The Boost","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-CA"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/8e0d7302b14f65be7f61f221a134fc9f","name":"Jordan Horrobin","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-CA","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7764.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7764.jpg","caption":"Jordan Horrobin"},"description":"Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles \u2014 especially for MLB markets or NFL\/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he\u2019ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news","https:\/\/twitter.com\/JordanHorrobin"],"url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/author\/jordan-horrobinnorthstargaming-ca\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346869","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/7"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=346869"}],"version-history":[{"count":3,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346869\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":346880,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/346869\/revisions\/346880"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/346741"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=346869"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=346869"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=346869"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}