{"id":346530,"date":"2025-05-15T09:29:32","date_gmt":"2025-05-15T13:29:32","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=346530"},"modified":"2025-05-15T09:29:32","modified_gmt":"2025-05-15T13:29:32","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-rays-may-15-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-rays-may-15-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Rays vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 15: Bet on Guerrero, Varsho and Gausman in series finale"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/kevin_gausman\/pitching-stats\">Kevin Gausman<\/a> and the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday for an afternoon rubber match.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> After a ninth-inning meltdown on Tuesday night, Toronto responded last night with a low-scoring win. Gausman is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three outings so far at Rogers Centre this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on May 15, featuring Gausman, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/daulton_varsho\/batting-stats\">Daulton Varsho<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Rays<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Best Bet<\/a>: Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-114)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Two seasons ago, Gausman led the American League with 237 strikeouts. That marked his fifth consecutive season with a 10.0 K\/9 or better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Are we ever going to see that guy again? I&#8217;m not sure. But he still has the stuff to go over 5.5 Ks when the matchup is right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s what I&#8217;m seeing here, as Gausman faces a strikeout-happy Rays squad.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>There are 19 MLB players with a K rate of 30.0% or higher (minimum 100 plate appearances). Three of them \u2014 Christopher Morel, Jose Caballero, Kameron Misner \u2014 are on the Rays.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tampa Bay has the 8th-highest K% vs. right-handed pitchers this season (23.3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Gausman only has 40 Ks through 45.1 innings, which equates to a 7.9 K\/9. That&#8217;d be his lowest since 2018.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But he cashed this bet in both starts against the Rays last year, during a season in which he had an 8.0 K\/9. Opponents matter a lot when it comes to strikeout props.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Gausman is 4-2 against this prop in his past six starts, averaging exactly 6.0 Ks in those outings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I think the price of this prop is fair, especially given the matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> In the past two weeks, Tampa Bay has the fifth-highest K rate in MLB (24.3%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:113778\">Embed: #113778<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-115)<\/a>:<\/strong> Jays fans are still waiting for a sustained power surge from Guerrero. But in the meantime, he&#8217;s finding ways on base and scoring at an impressive rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Guerrero has 1+ runs in 7 of his past 8 games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Dating back to April 23, Guerrero has a .309\/.400\/.471 slash line, scoring 15 runs in 18 games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The first baseman only has two extra-base hits in his past 11 games. That&#8217;s not exactly what you&#8217;d want to spend $500 million on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Guerrero has reached base 22 times in those 11 games. So he&#8217;s giving himself plenty of opportunities to come around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Guerrero is 3-for-5 with two walks against Rays starter Zack Littell.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Varsho over 1.5 bases (+125)<\/a>:<\/strong> I bet on Varsho to go hitless two nights ago. Instead, he homered twice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Varsho can be a bit boom-or-bust, but today&#8217;s matchup is one worth buying in on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>So far this season, Varsho has five home runs and a .781 SLG versus RHPs (32 at-bats).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Against Littell, Varsho is 4-for-9 (.444) with a homer and a double.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The sample is still quite small, but Varsho has already made a habit of tattooing the baseball. He&#8217;s among the league&#8217;s elite class in xSLG (.592), average exit velocity (95.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (57.1%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Rays vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 05\/15\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"thestar\">Looking to get started? <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNzQxMyZsPTEzNTI3NDExJnA9MjMyNDM%3D\">Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kevin Gausman and the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday for an afternoon rubber match. The pregame narrative: After a ninth-inning meltdown on Tuesday night, Toronto responded last night with a low-scoring win. Gausman is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three outings so far at Rogers Centre this year. Check [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":346531,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-346530","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Rays: May 15 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Rays for May 15, 2025. 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