{"id":346465,"date":"2025-05-14T13:24:51","date_gmt":"2025-05-14T17:24:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=346465"},"modified":"2025-05-14T13:24:51","modified_gmt":"2025-05-14T17:24:51","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-14\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets May 14: Bet on Jacob Wilson and Jackson Merrill to rake"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\">A trio of hitters stand out to me as logical MLB prop targets on Wednesday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: Brandon Nimmo faces a familiar foe amid a hot streak and seems to have plenty of value to go over 1.5 bases. Elsewhere, Jackson Merrill and Jacob Wilson are off to exceptional starts in their respective second seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\">Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Nimmo over 1.5 bases (+137)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lefty-on-lefty matchups almost always favour the pitcher. But there&#8217;s a rare exception in this matchup between Nimmo and Pirates starter Bailey Falter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Nimmo vs. LHPs:<\/strong> 10-for-34 (.294), 3 HR, .588 SLG<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Falter vs. LHHs:<\/strong> 13-for-37 (.351), 2 HR, .541 SLG<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Neither sample is massive, but the contrast is stark compared to how these players fare against righties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s especially true for Falter, who has allowed a .945 OPS to left-hitting players this year and a .610 OPS to right-hitting players.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>When facing lefties, Nimmo has done basically all his damage on fastballs. He&#8217;s 9-for-20 with a .950 SLG against fastballs from LHPs, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Falter&#8217;s four-pitch mix includes sinkers and four-seamers, and he throws those pitches to lefties a combined 58.9% of the time. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Nimmo is hunting fastballs, he&#8217;ll likely find something to put the barrel to.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We&#8217;ve seen it before, as Nimmo is 5-for-12 with a home run against Falter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To me, this price is almost too good to be true for the Mets&#8217; cleanup man.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Nimmo has gone over 1.5 bases in three straight games and has a 1.007 OPS since April 28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Wilson over 1.5 bases (+130):<\/strong> Wilson has a Luis-Arraez-like hitter&#8217;s profile. Despite a dearth of power, he&#8217;s finding success by guiding the bat through the zone on the proper plane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wilson is third from the bottom in MLB in bat speed, but he&#8217;s in the 97th percentile in xBA (.319) and the 100th percentile in squared-up rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He also rarely walks and rarely strikes out, which makes him a great candidate to clear a bases prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among 159 qualified hitters, Wilson has the &#8230;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2nd-lowest K%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>11th-lowest BB%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The 2023 sixth-overall pick can still run into one, by the way. He homered twice last night in a 4-for-5 performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wilson has cashed this bet in eight of his past 12 games. As the leadoff man on a road team tonight, he&#8217;ll have plenty of opportunities to get this done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Merrill over 1.5 bases (-134)<\/strong>: Merrill, the National League Rookie of the Year runner-up from a season ago, has picked up right where he left off.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Not even a four-week absence due to a hamstring injury could slow him down. The outfielder is 14-for-27 (.519) this month with four extra-base hits.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the season, Merrill has a 1.183 OPS and has cashed this bet in 11 of 16 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now he&#8217;ll face right-hander Kyle Hendricks with a platoon advantage. The left-hitting Merrill has a .561 SLG in 446 at-bats against righties. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hendricks has a 6.93 ERA in his past five starts, allowing 34 baserunners and 19 runs in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET on 05\/14\/2025<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A trio of hitters stand out to me as logical MLB prop targets on Wednesday night. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: Brandon Nimmo faces a familiar foe amid a hot streak and seems to have plenty of value to go over 1.5 bases. Elsewhere, Jackson Merrill and Jacob Wilson are off to exceptional starts in their [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":346459,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-346465","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets May 14: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for May 14, 2025. 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