{"id":346209,"date":"2025-05-13T11:02:59","date_gmt":"2025-05-13T15:02:59","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=346209"},"modified":"2025-05-13T11:02:59","modified_gmt":"2025-05-13T15:02:59","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-rays-may-13-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-rays-may-13-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Rays vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 13: Ride with Aranda, fade Varsho"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays open up their season series on Tuesday night at Rogers Centre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto lost three, then won three, then lost four. Now the Jays have won four in a row, and a win tonight would mark their longest win streak of the season. Last year, Toronto went 4-9 against Tampa Bay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m backing <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/jonathan_aranda\/batting-stats\">Jonathan Aranda<\/a> and fading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/daulton_varsho\/batting-stats\">Daulton Varsho<\/a> in my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on May 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Rays<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Best Bet<\/a>: Aranda over 1.5 bases (+128)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hand up, I did not know who Aranda was when the season began.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a former Baseball America top-100 prospect (pre-2023), though, he&#8217;s not a complete unknown in the baseball world. And he&#8217;s putting everybody on notice right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 26-year-old infielder has a .342\/.429\/.553 slash line, good for the fifth-best OPS in the majors (.982).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Baseball Savant loves Aranda&#8217;s batted ball profile, too. He ranks in the 94th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aranda is a severe splits guy, and he&#8217;ll have the platoon advantage tonight against Toronto right-hander Jose Berrios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So far in his young career, Aranda&#8217;s OPS against righties (.814) is more than 300 points north of his OPS against lefties (.511).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Berrios shrugged off a rough season debut and has a 3.02 ERA since. But he hasn&#8217;t been dominant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Opposing hitters are tagging plenty of Berrios&#8217; offerings, evidenced by his 12.2% barrel rate (12th percentile in MLB) and 90.2 mph average exit velocity (34th percentile).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Aranda is 4-for-8 with two home runs against Berrios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> In 30 starts, Aranda has gone over 1.5 bases 15 times this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:113704\">Embed: #113704<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNDU3MiZsPTEzNTc4NzU5JnA9MjM3Njk%3D\">Varsho under 0.5 hits (+110)<\/a>:<\/strong> Varsho&#8217;s 2025 sample size is still quite small after he started the year on the injured list. But the early returns have been mixed at best.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The stocky outfielder is 6-for-31 (.194), going hitless in five of eight starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Varsho hasn&#8217;t had enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter. But if he did, his .197 xBA would rank near the bottom of MLB, while his 22.2% barrel rate would rank near the top. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s an odd dichotomy, to say the least. But keep in mind that Varsho also isn&#8217;t putting the ball in play much. Half of his 36 PAs have resulted in a strikeout (15) or walk (three).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Facing Tampa Bay right-hander Shane Baz, the left-hitting Varsho should have a platoon advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Baz is holding LHHs to a .194 average this year, and Varsho is just a .215 hitter in his career against RHPs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Rays vs. Blue Jays picks made at 10:41 a.m. ET on 05\/13\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"thestar\">Looking to get started? <a href=\"https:\/\/online.northstarbets.ca\/page?key=ej0xMzUyNzQxMyZsPTEzNTI3NDExJnA9MjMyNDM%3D\">Sign up here<\/a>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays open up their season series on Tuesday night at Rogers Centre. The pregame narrative: Toronto lost three, then won three, then lost four. Now the Jays have won four in a row, and a win tonight would mark their longest win streak of the season. Last year, [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":346228,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-346209","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Rays: May 13 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Rays for May 13, 2025. 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