{"id":346208,"date":"2025-05-13T10:26:16","date_gmt":"2025-05-13T14:26:16","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=346208"},"modified":"2025-05-13T10:26:16","modified_gmt":"2025-05-13T14:26:16","slug":"nuggets-vs-thunder-game-5-nba-sgp-predictions-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nuggets-vs-thunder-game-5-nba-sgp-predictions-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions Game 5: Bet on OKC to win big behind Gilgeous-Alexander"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder&#8217;s series is now a best-of-three, with the latter having home court advantage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> OKC is heavily favoured to win Game 5 at Paycom Center on Tuesday, which would push Denver to the brink of elimination. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/players\/shai_gilgeous_alexander\">Shai Gilgeous-Alexander<\/a> has played his best ball at home this season and is odds-on to score 30-plus points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions for May 13, featuring SGA and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/players\/jamal_murray\">Jamal Murray<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Parlay: Thunder -7.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Murray 6+ assists (+340)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Thunder -7.5 (-180): <\/strong>The Thunder have been nearly unbeatable at home this season, posting a 38-7 record at Paycom Center throughout the regular season and playoffs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>They lost Game 1 against the Nuggets at home after flatlining in the fourth quarter and blowing an 11-point lead, but responded with an emphatic 149-106 rout two nights later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I don&#8217;t expect another 40-point win, but I&#8217;m confident OKC can cover this number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Thunder are 30-13-2 ATS as home favourites this season, winning those games by an average of 16.3 points, according to Team Rankings.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>They have a +27.4 net rating at home in the playoffs. That&#8217;s nearly double the next closest team (Los Angeles Clippers +15.0).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Nikola Jokic and Gilgeous-Alexander are the game&#8217;s brightest stars, but Denver lacks the depth to compete in this matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Thunder are scoring the third-most bench points this postseason, while the Nuggets are scoring the second-fewest. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:113703\">Embed: #113703<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/basketball\/nba?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nba\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full NBA betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nba-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>NBA injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/top-players?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>NBA stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NBA SGP legs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong>Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points<\/strong><\/strong> (-165):<\/strong> Gilgeous-Alexander has been remarkably consistent against this milestone all year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>32.7 PPG (NBA-high)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>30+ points in 49 of 76 starts in regular season (64.4%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>30+ points in 4 of 8 playoff starts (50.0%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Canadian scored 33 and 34 points in his two home games this series while shooting a combined 23-of-39 from the field. He does a ton of damage at the free-throw line, too, averaging 8.75 FTA\/game this postseason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>SGA has scored at least 25 points in 11 of his last 12 games against Denver, reaching this milestone six times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong><strong>Murray 6+ assists<\/strong> (-143)<\/strong><\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>: Denver&#8217;s offence will always run through Jokic, but Murray has been a sneakily productive facilitator this postseason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s cleared this line in seven of 11 games and has been dishing the ball at a slightly higher rate than Jokic against the Thunder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Murray is averaging 13.8 potential assists per game against OKC, while Jokic is averaging 13.5. NBA.com categorizes a potential assist as a pass that leads directly to a shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If he keeps passing at that level, we only need his teammates to make 45% of those shots to cash this wager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions made at 9:50 a.m. ET 05\/13\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Denver Nuggets and Oklahoma City Thunder&#8217;s series is now a best-of-three, with the latter having home court advantage. The pregame narrative: OKC is heavily favoured to win Game 5 at Paycom Center on Tuesday, which would push Denver to the brink of elimination. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has played his best ball at home this season [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":346218,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[62],"tags":[83],"class_list":["post-346208","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nba","tag-nba"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions Game 5: NBA playoffs SGP | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Game 5 Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions. 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