{"id":344936,"date":"2025-05-07T16:39:52","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T20:39:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=344936"},"modified":"2025-05-07T16:39:52","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T20:39:52","slug":"stars-vs-jets-prop-picks-game-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/stars-vs-jets-prop-picks-game-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Stars vs. Jets prop picks Game 1: Back Kyle Connor and fade Matt Duchene"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets begin their second-round series on Wednesday night. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Both teams are playing with house money after mounting improbable third-period comebacks in their respective Game 7s. Winnipeg&#8217;s Connor Hellebuyck is freed up and will need to be sharp to best Dallas, which may be getting Jason Robertson (game-time decision) back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Stars vs. Jets prop picks on Matt Duchene and Kyle Connor for Game 1 on May 7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Stars vs. Jets picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/ice_hockey\/competitions\/10011\"><strong>Full NHL betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nhl-injury-report-2\"><strong>NHL injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nhl\/standings\"><strong>NHL player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nhl\/standings\"><strong>NHL standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Duchene to not record a point (-134)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Before we get into the picks, let&#8217;s contextualize how unlikely this matchup is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There have only been five instances of a multi-goal comeback in Game 7 in NHL history, and two occurred in the last week. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>None were as crazy as what happened in Winnipeg \u2014 the Jets erased a 3-1 deficit with two minutes left, scoring the game-tying goal with mere seconds to play before winning in double overtime.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hellebuyck turned away all 13 shots faced in the third period and overtime. The soon-to-be Vezina winner had this to say postgame: \u201cThe weight of the world is off my shoulders &#8230; and that had nothing to do with anyone else. It\u2019s just the mental grind of that series.&#8221; <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s my long-winded way of saying I think Hellebuyck is back, which is why I&#8217;m fading Duchene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hellebuyck posted a 2.01 GAA (best in the NHL) and .925 SV% (second-best) during the regular season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Duchene had some key contributions in Game 7 but was still held off the stat sheet in five games, including all three on the road.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Hellebuyck owned a 1.01 GAA and .965 SV% in four starts against Dallas this year. Duchene was held pointless in each game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Game 1 prop prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Connor over 2.5 shots (-175):<\/strong> Connor built off his spectacular regular season by going berserk in Round 1. He led the Jets in all of the following stats:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Goals (4)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Assists (8)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Shots (22)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Chances (45)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The American-born winger only cleared this line in three games, but he turned in a seven-shot performance in Game 7.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dallas was missing its defensive lynchpin, Miro Heiskanen, in the opening round. The Finn has been ruled out for Game 1, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Without Heiskanen, the Stars gave up the most chances (73.8) and the second-most shots (31.65) on a 60-minute basis, according to Natural Stat Trick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Connor averaged 3.25 shots per game during the regular season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Stars vs. Jets prop picks made at 2:42 p.m. ET 05\/07\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Dallas Stars and Winnipeg Jets begin their second-round series on Wednesday night. The pregame narrative: Both teams are playing with house money after mounting improbable third-period comebacks in their respective Game 7s. Winnipeg&#8217;s Connor Hellebuyck is freed up and will need to be sharp to best Dallas, which may be getting Jason Robertson (game-time [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":344894,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,58],"tags":[49],"class_list":["post-344936","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-nhl","tag-nhl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Stars vs. Jets picks: Game 1 prop predictions | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Game 1 Stars vs. Jets picks. 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