{"id":344780,"date":"2025-05-07T14:12:13","date_gmt":"2025-05-07T18:12:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=344780"},"modified":"2025-05-07T14:12:14","modified_gmt":"2025-05-07T18:12:14","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-7-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-7-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets May 7: Back Rangers Smith, Mahle and Detroit&#8217;s Torkelson and McKinstry"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\">We&#8217;re treated to all-day baseball on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><strong>Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative<\/strong>: You can find excellent prices on Detroit Tigers hitters for tonight&#8217;s game at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado. I&#8217;m targeting a pair of them and also have picks on two Texas Rangers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\">My best MLB prop bets for May 7 feature plays on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/spencer_torkelson\/batting-stats\">Spencer Torkelson<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/zach_mckinstry\/batting-stats\">Zach McKinstry<\/a>, <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/josh_smith\/batting-stats\">Josh Smith<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/tyler_mahle\/pitching-stats\">Tyler Mahle<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Torkelson over 1.5 total bases (+128)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I recommended this play yesterday, but the game was postponed. The reasoning today, though, remains the same.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Torkelson enters this plus matchup as the team leader in:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Home runs: 10<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Total bases: 67<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>OPS: .889&nbsp;<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>ISO: .306 (7th in MLB)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Torkelson has topped this line in 50% of his starts this&nbsp;season, according to Team Rankings. Like most, he thrives with a platoon advantage, but he has handled right-handed pitching well (five homers, .825 OPS).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rookie Chase Dollander gets the ball for the Rockies. The right-hander has a 6.48 ERA through five starts, allowing four-plus runs in three of those outings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dollander has surrendered eight homers, six of which have come at Coors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Only 11 players have more extra-base hits than Torkelson&#8217;s 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:113528\">Embed: #113528<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>McKinstry over 0.5 runs (-113):<\/strong> The value was slightly better at -106 yesterday, but this is still highly playable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>McKinstry leads the Tigers with a .375 on-base percentage. He&#8217;s bounced around the lineup a bit but has settled in at No. 2\/3 in a lot of recent games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That would obviously be a terrific spot for him and put him in front of Torkelson and Riley Greene, two of Detroit&#8217;s best power bats.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Regardless of where he slots, McKinstry should be surrounded by good bats in a run-producing environment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Following Dollander, who has walked two-plus batters in four straight outings, is an erratic Rockies bullpen that lacks swing and miss.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>McKinstry has crossed the plate in 53.1% of his games, a top-15 mark in MLB.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rangers MLB prop picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Smith over 0.5 runs (+102)<\/strong>: This is a great number that&#8217;s unlikely to stay plus money the way it&#8217;s being priced elsewhere. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Smith, the team leader in runs, is batting leadoff for the Rangers, who face Tanner Houck and the Boston Red Sox tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Houck has thrown well in both home starts this season but has otherwise been obliterated, including his first outing of the season vs. Texas. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The righty has especially pitched poorly vs. left-handed batters, which Smith is. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Smith has particularly punished right-handers and hits in front of the club&#8217;s best bat \u2014 fellow LHB Corey Seager.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Houck vs. LHBs: .342\/.418\/.608<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Smith vs. RHPs: .352\/.418\/.563<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Six of the seven homers Houck has allowed have been to lefties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Mahle over 4.5 Ks (-129)<\/strong>: The right-hander only has 196.2 innings on his arm since 2022, but his numbers have generally been impressive: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>3.66 ERA (3.64 FIP) <\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1.16 WHIP<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.221 BA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>24.3 K% (8.97 K\/9)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Mahle has given the Rangers surprising innings early on, working six-plus frames in four of his last five starts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He turned in a clunker vs. Boston in his season debut but topped this line in three of six starts since. The 30-year-old had four Ks two of the times he fell short.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boston has hit right-handers for power, but that&#8217;s come with a lot of swing and miss, too. The Red Sox have the fourth-highest K rate in MLB vs. RHPs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET on 05\/07\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>We&#8217;re treated to all-day baseball on Wednesday. Today&#8217;s MLB props narrative: You can find excellent prices on Detroit Tigers hitters for tonight&#8217;s game at hitter-friendly Coors Field in Colorado. I&#8217;m targeting a pair of them and also have picks on two Texas Rangers. My best MLB prop bets for May 7 feature plays on Spencer [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":344876,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130,155],"class_list":["post-344780","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-props"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets May 7: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for May 7, 2025. 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