{"id":344218,"date":"2025-05-05T09:42:47","date_gmt":"2025-05-05T13:42:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=344218"},"modified":"2025-05-05T09:42:47","modified_gmt":"2025-05-05T13:42:47","slug":"nuggets-vs-thunder-prop-picks-game-1-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nuggets-vs-thunder-prop-picks-game-1-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks Game 1: Bet on Jokic to shine, fade Holmgren"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>A battle between two MVP finalists begins on Monday night as <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/players\/nikola_jokic\">Nikola Jokic<\/a>&#8216;s Denver Nuggets visit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander&#8217;s Oklahoma City Thunder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Denver only played two days ago, but its blowout win in Game 7 against the Los Angeles Clippers meant that stars like Jokic didn&#8217;t need to shoulder a full workload. Jokic has been active as a rebounder and passer against the Thunder all season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks featuring Chet Holmgren in Game 1 on May 5.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Jokic over 22.5 rebounds and assists (-118)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One of the biggest knocks on last year&#8217;s top-seeded Thunder was their lack of frontcourt size. They addressed that concern in the offseason by bringing in Isaiah Hartenstein (7 feet, 255 pounds), and he&#8217;s been solid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Jokic has about 30 pounds on Hartenstein, and when push comes to shove \u2014 possibly in a literal sense \u2014 I&#8217;ll still bank on the three-time MVP having his way around the rim.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Let&#8217;s look at this prop market by splitting it into two, starting with rebounds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Thunder allowed the eighth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (15.28), per Betting Pros.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Jokic had 12+ rebounds in all four games vs. OKC this year.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>As for passing, the Thunder allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season. But Jokic still averaged 11.5 assists in his four matchups against the Thunder.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And in the playoffs, Jokic has been among the most active passers in the league. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On a per-game basis, he ranks second in the postseason in assists (10.1), potential assists (18.1), and passes made (75.3).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jokic averaged 27.3 RA against the Thunder this year, going 3-1 against this line. He had exactly 22 rebounds\/assists in the outlier.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> During the regular season, Jokic averaged 22.9 RA in 70 matchups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:113405\">Embed: #113405<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/basketball\/nba?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nba\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full NBA betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nba-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>NBA injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/top-players?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>NBA stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Game 1 prop prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Holmgren under 8.5 rebounds (-143):<\/strong> Fading a 7-foot-1 player on a rebound line like this might seem odd. But Holmgren is far from a traditional big.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At just 213 pounds, he&#8217;s not known to muscle people around in the paint. Sure, he&#8217;s got plenty of length, but he&#8217;s also a capable 3-point shooter who spends plenty of time on the perimeter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Holmgren was 11-for-26 (42.3%) from deep in the first round of the playoffs. As a rebounder, he went 2-2 against this line but had just 10 total boards in the final two games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>During the regular season, Holmgren averaged 8.0 rebounds and went under this number in 18 of 32 games (56.3%). That includes a pair of home games against Denver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Hartenstein is matched up with Jokic most of the time, as I expect, this should be a worthwhile fade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 9:08 a.m. ET 05\/05\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>A battle between two MVP finalists begins on Monday night as Nikola Jokic&#8216;s Denver Nuggets visit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander&#8217;s Oklahoma City Thunder. The pregame narrative: Denver only played two days ago, but its blowout win in Game 7 against the Los Angeles Clippers meant that stars like Jokic didn&#8217;t need to shoulder a full workload. Jokic [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":344237,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[62],"tags":[12],"class_list":["post-344218","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nba","tag-nba-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Nuggets vs. Thunder picks: NBA Game 1 prop predictions | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Game 1 Nuggets vs. Thunder picks. 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