{"id":343509,"date":"2025-05-03T12:55:30","date_gmt":"2025-05-03T16:55:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=343509"},"modified":"2025-05-03T12:55:30","modified_gmt":"2025-05-03T16:55:30","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-3-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-3-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets May 3: Picks on Riley Greene and Brandon Pfaadt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>All 30 MLB teams are in action on Saturday and I&#8217;ve got three prop bets to share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\">The pregame narrative: Riley Greene has been tearing the cover off the baseball and has an advantageous matchup. I also have picks starting pitchers <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/brandon_pfaadt\/pitching-stats\">Brandon Pfaadt<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/patrick_corbin\/pitching-stats\">Patrick Corbin<\/a> earlier in the evening.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-8f1effd0-db18-40a8-916e-091372420d9e\">Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 3.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong>Greene over 1.5 total bases<\/strong> (<strong>+117)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Detroit Tigers slugger is on a tear right now, slashing .400\/.455\/.733 over the past eight games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s 5-3 against this line over that time. But that&#8217;s not the only reason to back Greene.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kyle Hendricks makes his sixth start of the season for the Los Angeles Angels, and things have been ugly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>0-3<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>6.65 ERA (1.39 WHIP)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.265 opponent xBA<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Hendricks is not a strikeout arm, either. He&#8217;s in the 7th percentile for K rate (13.3%) and the 3rd percentile for whiff rate (16.0%), per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That can work in favour of Greene, who loves to hack. The outfielder has a 31.3% chase rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Most importantly, he&#8217;s a righty, and Greene is a player who can take advantage of the platoon advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The lefty has a .298 average and .920 OPS against right-handed pitching this season (89 plate appearances).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Greene leads the Tigers with 64 total bases.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:113361\">Embed: #113361<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Corbin under 15.5 outs&nbsp;(-130)<\/strong>: Corbin got off to a fairly good start to the year, allowing three or fewer runs in each of his first four starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He hasn&#8217;t worked deep into ball games, though. Corbin&#8217;s cleared this line just once, mostly because his 1.58 WHIP has resulted in a high pitch count per inning.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I can&#8217;t completely ignore his 3.79 ERA, so I dug deeper, and I believe there is regression to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His 4.66 xERA is much higher than his actual number and ranks in the 28th percentile.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His opponent xBA of .296 is even worse, ranking in the 12th percentile.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Additionally, the Seattle Mariners have an xBA of .332 in 59 plate appearances against Corbin, who hasn&#8217;t had an ERA lower than 5.00 for an entire season since 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even if the righty continues to get lucky, it&#8217;ll take a lot of pitches to do so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Pfaadt over 5.5 strikeouts (+112):<\/strong> On the other side of the narrative, there&#8217;s Pfaadt, who has the best head-to-head stats of any starter on Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 35 plate appearances against the current Philadelphia Phillies lineup, Pfaadt has a 42.9% K rate and allows a measly .152 average.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He hasn&#8217;t been very effective as a strikeout thrower this season, going under this total in four of six games. But this is a matchup I cannot ignore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Plus, he&#8217;s had six or more Ks in two of his past three starts, which is an indication that he is ramping up as the year progresses.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pfaadt had a 9.17 K\/9 last in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 12:12 p.m. ET on 05\/03\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>All 30 MLB teams are in action on Saturday and I&#8217;ve got three prop bets to share. The pregame narrative: Riley Greene has been tearing the cover off the baseball and has an advantageous matchup. I also have picks starting pitchers Brandon Pfaadt and Patrick Corbin earlier in the evening. Check out the best MLB [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":343563,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-343509","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets May 3: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for May 3, 2025. 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