{"id":343284,"date":"2025-05-02T12:24:08","date_gmt":"2025-05-02T16:24:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=343284"},"modified":"2025-05-02T12:24:14","modified_gmt":"2025-05-02T16:24:14","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-guardians-may-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-guardians-may-2\/","title":{"rendered":"Guardians vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 2: Back Vladimir Guerrero Jr., fade Chris Bassitt"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game homestand against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto rebounded from an ugly stretch with back-to-back comeback wins over the Boston Red Sox. The Jays hope to keep the good vibes rolling against a Guardians team leading the AL Central at 18-13. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Chris Bassitt are my Blue Jays prop picks for May 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians <\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best Bet: Guerrero over 1.5 bases (-108)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Guerrero played the hero last night hitting a three-run blast in the eighth inning to put Toronto up and secure the series win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-rich is-provider-twitter wp-block-embed-twitter\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<blockquote class=\"twitter-tweet\" data-width=\"550\" data-dnt=\"true\"><p lang=\"en\" dir=\"ltr\">Blue Jays Vladimir Guerrero Jr. hits his 56th career Home Run with an exit velocity of 110+ mph https:\/\/t.co\/vs9HL800bI<\/p>&mdash; Sportsnet Stats (@SNstats) <a href=\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/SNstats\/status\/1918110637994942517?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw\">May 2, 2025<\/a><\/blockquote><script async src=\"https:\/\/platform.twitter.com\/widgets.js\" charset=\"utf-8\"><\/script>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And can we talk about where he hit that pitch from? Talk about shades of his old man. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Anyways, Guerrero is rounding into form with hits in six of his last seven games \u2014 three of those left the yard. He&#8217;s still slashing an underwhelming .267\/.358\/.422 this season but Baseball Savant&#8217;s advanced metrics paint a rosier picture:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.311 xBA (94th percnetile)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.518 xSLG (84th percentile)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>54.3% hard-hit rate (93rd percentile)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Guerrero is still mashing baseballs, but they just happen to be going right at fielders. Things are bound to start breaking his way sooner rather than later, and we&#8217;ve already seen that over the past week.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Tonight&#8217;s matchup against Cleveland&#8217;s Logan Allen presents a strong opportunity for Guerrero to stay hot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The southpaw owns a 4.21 ERA through five starts and just got tagged for seven earned runs on nine hits against the Red Sox.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Guerrero is slashing .308\/.417\/.538 against LHP since the start of last season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Bassitt under 5.5 strikeouts (-138):<\/strong> The Bassitt Cy Young hype train has been derailed, at least for now. Toronto&#8217;s righty has gotten rocked in consecutive starts after posting a 0.77 ERA through his first four outings of the year:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>April 22 vs. HOU:<\/strong> 5.1 IP, 7 H, 4 ER, 3 K<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>April 27 vs. NYY:<\/strong> 5.2 IP, 6 H, 4 ER, 5 K<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I expect a better performance from Bassitt on Friday, but think this strikeout line is <em>way <\/em>too high, even if he works deep into the ballgame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Why? Bassitt&#8217;s K rate was below the league average in three straight seasons heading into 2025. And while he has a 76th percentile K rate through six starts, we&#8217;re early on and have already seen a regression to the mean.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The righty is 1-3 against this line in his last four starts and has a 39th percentile whiff rate to boot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Cleveland strikes out at the 10th-lowest rate vs. RHP, and its lineup has a 19.4% K rate against Bassitt in 35 combined plate appearances.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Guardians vs. Blue Jays picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 05\/02\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays open up a three-game homestand against the Cleveland Guardians on Friday. The pregame narrative: Toronto rebounded from an ugly stretch with back-to-back comeback wins over the Boston Red Sox. The Jays hope to keep the good vibes rolling against a Guardians team leading the AL Central at 18-13. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":343274,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-343284","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians: May 2 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Guardians for May 2, 2025. 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