{"id":343210,"date":"2025-05-01T15:04:52","date_gmt":"2025-05-01T19:04:52","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=343210"},"modified":"2025-05-01T15:04:52","modified_gmt":"2025-05-01T19:04:52","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-may-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets May 1: Fade Chapman amid slump, back Torres with platoon advantage"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>There&#8217;s plenty of afternoon action around MLB, but I&#8217;m targeting the three latest starts for my MLB prop bets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: In Toronto, Alex Bregman looks to stay hot and has a nice price to record an RBI. On the West Coast, I&#8217;m looking to tail Gleyber Torres and fade Matt Chapman on their respective bases props.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-8f1effd0-db18-40a8-916e-091372420d9e\">Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong>Bregman over 0.5 RBI<\/strong> (<strong>+125)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bregman is wielding a white-hot bat right now, and from the No. 3 spot in Boston&#8217;s order, I think this is a great way to back him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The veteran third baseman has a 1.288 OPS in his past 13 games, totalling 12 RBI in that span.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He has 1+ RBI in 4 of 6 matchups since April 24.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Bregman has homered in both games so far this series, so obviously he can cash this on his own. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But RBI props are about opportunities with runners on base, and Bregman has had plenty of those, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bregman has 70 plate appearances with runners on base so far, which is tied for the seventh-most in MLB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In those PAs, Bregman has a .350\/.429\/.583 slash line (184 wRC+). That&#8217;s the ninth-highest wRC+ among players with 50-plus PAs with runners on.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jose Berrios hasn&#8217;t been great in three home starts this year, allowing 17 hits and 11 runs in 16.2 innings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I expect Jarren Duran to create some RBI opportunities for Bregman tonight. Boston&#8217;s leadoff man is 9-for-18 with eight extra-base hits against Berrios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Bregman is 7-for-29 with two doubles and two home runs (.517 SLG) against Berrios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Torres over 1.5 bases\u00a0(+125)<\/strong>: Torres isn&#8217;t going to light up the radar gun with his batted-ball exit velocity, but his contact quality has been superb in the early stages of 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Torres is below average in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. But check out his rankings in some other notable categories, per Baseball Savant:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>96th-percentile squared-up rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>87th-percentile chase rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>87th-percentile xBA<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Torres is on a prove-it contract, having signed a one-year deal with the Tigers just after Christmas. He&#8217;s off to a solid start and is worth backing whenever there&#8217;s a left-hander on the mound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tonight, Torres faces Angels southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. In their past matchups, Torres is 10-for-28 with two doubles and a homer.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since 2023, Torres has a .274\/.363\/.505 slash line against LHPs. His 143 wRC+ against lefties in that span ranks 21st out of 127 qualified hitters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Chapman under 1.5 bases (-143):<\/strong> I love this price on fading Chapman, who is 3-for-34 (.088) in his past 10 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chapman will theoretically have a platoon advantage tonight against the left-handed Kyle Freeland, but that&#8217;s not a big part of his hitting profile. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Throughout his career, Chapman&#8217;s OPS against lefties (.818) is fewer than 40 points north of his OPS against righties (.779).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, it&#8217;s worth noting that Chapman is 1-for-8 lifetime against Freeland.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Chapman is a boom-or-bust hitter who hasn&#8217;t boomed in a while. He also leads the majors in walks (26 in 31 games), and any free passes issued tonight would be a plus for this pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET on 05\/01\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>There&#8217;s plenty of afternoon action around MLB, but I&#8217;m targeting the three latest starts for my MLB prop bets. The pregame narrative: In Toronto, Alex Bregman looks to stay hot and has a nice price to record an RBI. On the West Coast, I&#8217;m looking to tail Gleyber Torres and fade Matt Chapman on their [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":343184,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-343210","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets May 1: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for May 1, 2025. 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