{"id":342900,"date":"2025-04-29T15:01:30","date_gmt":"2025-04-29T19:01:30","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=342900"},"modified":"2025-04-29T15:01:30","modified_gmt":"2025-04-29T19:01:30","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-red-sox-april-29-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-red-sox-april-29-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 29: Bet on Rafael Devers to score, Bowden Francis to work deep"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/bowden_francis\/pitching-stats\">Bowden Francis<\/a> is expected to start for the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday when they host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> I have mixed feelings on Francis, but I do expect him to work deep into tonight&#8217;s game for Toronto. On Boston&#8217;s side of things, I&#8217;m targeting two platoon-advantaged hitters \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/rafael_devers\/batting-stats\">Rafael Devers<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/wilyer_abreu\/batting-stats\">Wilyer Abreu<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 29.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Francis over 17.5 outs (-129)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I faded Francis&#8217; outs prop his last time out, and it cashed. I&#8217;m still not high on the right-hander based on the quality of contact he&#8217;s allowing, but I do think he can stick around for a fairly lengthy outing tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Blue Jays were off Monday, but that was on the heels of a doubleheader in New York on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As it stands right now, the Jays appear to be lining up for a bullpen game tomorrow night before the four-man rotation turns over on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With that in mind, it&#8217;d be really nice for Toronto to get some length from Francis. It&#8217;s no guarantee, but the team should be motivated to give him a longer leash in order to maximize relief options for Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It also helps to know that Francis has great (albeit limited) numbers against the active Red Sox lineup:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>.103 opponent BA (3-for-29)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.172 opponent SLG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>35.5 K%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Across two starts against Boston last season, Francis tossed 12.0 innings of scoreless, four-hit ball while striking out nine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Dating back to 2024, Francis has gone over 17.5 outs in five of his past six home starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:113226\">Embed: #113226<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Devers over 0.5 runs (-103):<\/strong> Francis has fared much better against righties than lefties this season, which makes the left-hitting Devers an enticing target in this matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>Francis vs. LHHs<\/strong>: .858 OPS<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>Francis vs. RHHs<\/strong>: .662 OPS<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Devers&#8217; .907 career OPS against righties means this platoon advantage works on both sides of the coin. And he&#8217;s doing a great job of getting on base right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Devers has reached base at least twice in eight of his past 11 games \u2014 and he&#8217;s scored in nine of this past 12.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From the No. 2 spot in Boston&#8217;s order, Devers is in a great spot to be driven in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Abreu over 1.5 bases (+110):<\/strong> Someone I hope will have the chance to drive Devers in is Abreu, another hitter from the left side who enjoys facing righties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The third-year outfielder has a career .280\/.357\/.505 slash line versus righties. By comparison, he&#8217;s only slugging .250 against lefties.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Abreu has gone over 1.5 bases in 11 of 24 starts. He ranks in the 80th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xSLG and xwOBA.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Francis is allowing a .304 xBA (ninth percentile), so I think Abreu is well worth targeting tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks made at 2:50 p.m. ET on 04\/29\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bowden Francis is expected to start for the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday when they host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre. The pregame narrative: I have mixed feelings on Francis, but I do expect him to work deep into tonight&#8217;s game for Toronto. On Boston&#8217;s side of things, I&#8217;m targeting two platoon-advantaged hitters [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":342928,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-342900","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox: April 29 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 29, 2025. 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