{"id":342667,"date":"2025-04-28T13:12:08","date_gmt":"2025-04-28T17:12:08","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=342667"},"modified":"2025-04-28T13:12:09","modified_gmt":"2025-04-28T17:12:09","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-april-28-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-and-predictions-april-28-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets April 28: Back Brent Rooker, fade starters Bryce Elder and Nick Martinez"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I&#8217;m kicking off the new week with MLB prop picks on two starting pitchers and Athletics slugger <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/brent_rooker\/batting-stats\">Brent Rooker<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/bryce_elder\/pitching-stats\">Bryce Elder<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/nick_martinez\/pitching-stats\">Nick Martinez<\/a> are both struggling ahead of their starts and I expect that trend to continue. As for Rooker, he mashes lefties and gets a super hittable one tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-8f1effd0-db18-40a8-916e-091372420d9e\">Check out the best MLB prop bets for Monday, April 28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong>Rooker over 1.5 total bases<\/strong> (<strong>-115)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>&nbsp;A juicy matchup and a reasonable price make Rooker a no-brainer play.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Athletics face Texas Rangers starter Patrick Corbin, a left-handed arm who has been hit as hard as any pitcher over the last several years.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rooker makes his living punishing lefties and has upper-tier pop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Corbin has a respectable 3.77 ERA through three starts, but don\u2019t be fooled: His expected ERA is more than a full run higher, and his FIP is an unsightly 5.42.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The southpaw doesn\u2019t miss enough bats, walks too many batters and his 5.71 ERA from 2021-24 was the highest mark among qualified starters.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Corbin generally works deep and has gone five-plus innings in his last two starts. That&#8217;s a plus here, as that length would give Rooker at least a couple of cracks at him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rooker enters the day batting .308\/.379\/.692 against lefties. His OPS vs. LHPs over the last few seasons:\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>2025: 1.072<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2024: .949<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2023: .874<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Athletics DH is 10th in ISO vs. southpaws over that stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Rooker has topped 1.5 bases in 59.3% of his starts, per Team Rankings. That\u2019s third in MLB behind Aaron Judge and Corbin Carroll.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:113091\">Embed: #113091<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Elder under 4.5 Ks\u00a0(-110)<\/strong>: Elder gets hit often, doesn\u2019t miss bats and he&#8217;s at Coors Field tonight.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I debated whether to fade Elder on his outs or strikeout prop, but I\u2019ve elected to go this route despite the Colorado Rockies having big swing-and-miss tendencies through the first month.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>You could talk yourself into Elder based on the fact that the Rockies have a 67 wRC+ vs. righties and the highest K rate in MLB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And despite some added power from playing at Coors, their lineup hasn\u2019t performed well at home.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I\u2019ve talked myself out of Elder for these reasons:&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He\u2019s in the bottom 10th percentile among starters in strikeout and whiff rate.&nbsp;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Elder has worked 6.0 innings twice in four starts but hasn\u2019t topped four Ks this season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Only eight pitchers among 138 who have thrown 20+ innings have a lower K% than Elder (13.0).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Elder is posting a career-low K rate and has been below league average in all four seasons.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He has a 5.57 ERA, a season after posting a mark of 6.52.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Martinez under 17.5 outs (-127): <\/strong>The Cincinnati Reds right-hander is 0-4 against this line since working 6.0 innings in his season-opening start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s at home tonight at the unforgiving Great American Ball Park. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Martinez has surrendered four runs in both home outings, and his ERA was nearly two full runs higher at home last season (4.00 vs. 2.18). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The St. Louis Cardinals have had an above-average offence vs. righties (108 wRC+), are top 10 in walk rate and only two teams have struck out at a lower rate. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cincinnati got 13 innings out of its starters the last two days and was off Thursday, so bullpen fatigue shouldn&#8217;t be a big concern here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This is not the matchup to expect a deep outing from Martinez (5.40 ERA).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 12:01 p.m. ET on 04\/28\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m kicking off the new week with MLB prop picks on two starting pitchers and Athletics slugger Brent Rooker. The pregame narrative: Bryce Elder and Nick Martinez are both struggling ahead of their starts and I expect that trend to continue. As for Rooker, he mashes lefties and gets a super hittable one tonight. Check [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":342722,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130,155],"class_list":["post-342667","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-props"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets April 28: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for April 28, 2025. 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