{"id":342662,"date":"2025-04-28T11:21:54","date_gmt":"2025-04-28T15:21:54","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=342662"},"modified":"2025-04-28T11:21:54","modified_gmt":"2025-04-28T15:21:54","slug":"nba-playoff-prop-bets-april-28-2","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nba-playoff-prop-bets-april-28-2\/","title":{"rendered":"NBA playoff prop bets April 28: Bet on Davion Mitchell, fade Fred VanVleet"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I&#8217;m fading one guard and backing another for Monday night&#8217;s NBA playoff doubleheader.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/players\/davion_mitchell\">Davion Mitchell<\/a> has been an unsung star of the first round for the soon-to-be-bounced Miami Heat. I&#8217;m sticking with what has been a very profitable prop market for him, while <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/players\/fred_van_vleet\">Fred VanVleet<\/a> has solid value on an under.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-8f1effd0-db18-40a8-916e-091372420d9e\">Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">NBA prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\"><strong>Best Bet: Mitchell over 18.5 points\/assists (-118)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I know this isn&#8217;t the flashiest play out there, but I keep coming back to it because it keeps cashing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The ex-Toronto Raptor is 10-4 against this prop since March 23. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mitchell has been the primary ball-handler for the Heat in their first-round series, but he&#8217;s also had to take matters into his own hands when teammates&#8217; shots aren&#8217;t falling. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So far in the postseason, Mitchell is averaging 17.7 potential assists per game, which refers to passes that immediately lead to a shot. And that&#8217;s the third-highest among all playoff performers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Mitchell is only averaging 6.7 assists, meaning a 37.9% conversion rate on his <em>potential<\/em> assists. Other primary passers like Tyrese Haliburton, James Harden and Jalen Brunson are all over 60.0%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I take this to mean that Mitchell could see some positive regression if the pass volume holds. But also, it might be further incentive for him to continue shooting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Mitchell is 22-for-32 (68.8 FG%) from the floor in the playoffs. He has 16-plus points in each game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s fair to think his shooting efficiency will regress, but the passing side of things should make up for that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This might be the last game of the year to bet on Mitchell in this market, and I&#8217;m not going to miss out.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\"><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: In the first round, Mitchell is averaging 17.3 points and 6.7 assists (24.0 PA) against the Cleveland Cavaliers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/basketball\/competitions\/10240\"><strong>Full NBA betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nba-injury-report-news\"><strong>NBA injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/top-players\"><strong>NBA player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/standings\"><strong>NBA standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best NBA picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>VanVleet under 2.5 threes (+100):<\/strong> Betting against VanVleet failed me in Game 4, as he slogged his way to 17 points on 5-for-14 shooting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I still think he&#8217;s generally worth fading, though, and at an even-money price, I think this is the right way to do it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>VanVleet is 6-for-29 (20.7%) from 3-point range in this series. Yes, that&#8217;s a lot of 3s, and therein lies the risk. But he&#8217;s just not hitting them at anything close to a respectable clip.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s been a theme for the veteran guard all year against the Golden State Warriors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Under 2.5 threes is 5-2 when VanVleet faces the Warriors, and he&#8217;s shooting 21.3% from deep in those games. Playing the averages, I see enough value here to buy in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><em>NBA prop picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 04\/28\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I&#8217;m fading one guard and backing another for Monday night&#8217;s NBA playoff doubleheader. The pregame narrative: Davion Mitchell has been an unsung star of the first round for the soon-to-be-bounced Miami Heat. I&#8217;m sticking with what has been a very profitable prop market for him, while Fred VanVleet has solid value on an under. Check [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":342634,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,62],"tags":[12],"class_list":["post-342662","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-nba","tag-nba-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NBA prop bets April 28: Playoff picks, predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best NBA prop bets for April 28, 2025. 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Basketball betting odds and predictions for Monday&#039;s NBA playoff games.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nba-playoff-prop-bets-april-28-2\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Boost\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-28T15:21:54+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2025\/04\/Davion-Mitchell-Fred-VanVleet.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"1200\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"800\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Jordan Horrobin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@JordanHorrobin\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Jordan Horrobin\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nba-playoff-prop-bets-april-28-2\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nba-playoff-prop-bets-april-28-2\/\",\"name\":\"NBA prop bets April 28: Playoff picks, predictions & odds | NSB\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-28T15:21:54+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-04-28T15:21:54+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/8e0d7302b14f65be7f61f221a134fc9f\"},\"description\":\"Check out our best NBA prop bets for April 28, 2025. 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