{"id":341734,"date":"2025-04-25T16:11:12","date_gmt":"2025-04-25T20:11:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=341734"},"modified":"2025-04-26T11:24:48","modified_gmt":"2025-04-26T15:24:48","slug":"rockets-vs-warriors-prop-picks-game-3-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/rockets-vs-warriors-prop-picks-game-3-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks Game 3: Fade VanVleet, bet on Sengun to star for Houston"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Even at one game apiece, the first-round series between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors shifts to the Bay Area.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> My eyes are on a pair of prop bets for the visiting Rockets, who&#8217;ve gotten frustratingly little from money vacuum <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/top-players\/points\/season\">Fred VanVleet<\/a>. I&#8217;m fading VanVleet and looking for another solid game from <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/players\/alperen_sengun\">Alperen Sengun<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks for Game 3 of the opening round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: VanVleet under 12.5 points (-108)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s a thought: Maybe it&#8217;s time the Rockets ask VanVleet to stop shooting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Giving the ex-Raptor a max contract in the summer of 2023 was clearly a mistake, but the Rockets don&#8217;t have a time machine to change that. What they can do is take the ball out of the hands of someone who was arguably the worst shooter in the NBA this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among players who played at least 20 games and attempted 10-plus shots per game, VanVleet was second-last in field goal percentage (37.8%, ahead of only Portland&#8217;s Jerami Grant).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>VanVleet&#8217;s 14.1 PPG scoring average was his lowest since 2018-19, when he was only a part-time starter on the Raptors&#8217; championship squad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Battling an ankle injury in the latter half of the season, VanVleet&#8217;s scoring production really dipped over his final 20 games:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>11.7 PPG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>34.2 FG%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Under 12.5 pts in 11 of 20<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>And it&#8217;s not like his postseason efforts have righted the ship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Through two matchups against Golden State, VanVleet is 6-for-27 from the floor (3-for-20 from deep) for a grand total of 17 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He had seven points on eight shots last time out, a game Houston won by 15. It seems like the team&#8217;s offence is better off without him.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> In six games against the Warriors this season, VanVleet has averaged 8.7 PPG on 22.4% shooting. He scored 13 points in one of those matchups and cashed this under in the other five.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:112994\">Embed: #112994<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/basketball\/nba?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nba\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full NBA betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nba-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>NBA injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nba\/top-players?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>NBA stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Game 3 prop prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sengun over 30.5 points\/rebounds (-122):<\/strong> I took Sengun&#8217;s over at 31.5 points\/rebounds in Game 2, and he responded with 17 points and 16 boards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He has now cashed this bet in four of his past five games against the Warriors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I really don&#8217;t understand why his PR line would be a tick lower for Game 3, but I&#8217;ll just bet it instead of asking questions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Warriors may be forced into fewer small-ball lineups if Jimmy Butler (pelvis) is unable to play. But I still expect Houston to run a significant portion of its offence through its 6-foot-11 centre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his past five games against Golden State, Sengun has averaged 19.6 points and 12.6 rebounds (32.2 PR).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Draymond Green under 6.5 rebounds (-121):<\/strong> Green is as disruptive as any 6-foot-6 centre could possibly hope to be, but he gives up a ton of size around the rim. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If the Warriors continue to commit to small ball, Green should be well-positioned to grab boards. But that hasn&#8217;t turned into big numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Green has played 30+ minutes in both games and finished under 6.5 rebounds both times.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Green is 0-5 vs. this rebounds prop in his past five matchups against the Rockets (since Dec. 11).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>If Jimmy Butler (pelvis, questionable) is out, the Warriors might need to shift their strategy and play with more size in the paint (deploying Kevon Looney or Quinten Post, for example). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And if Butler <em>does<\/em> play, he has enough rebounding prowess to continue to bite into Green&#8217;s opportunity. So I just don&#8217;t like this number for Green either way.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks made at 3:37 p.m. ET 04\/25\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Even at one game apiece, the first-round series between the Houston Rockets and Golden State Warriors shifts to the Bay Area. The pregame narrative: My eyes are on a pair of prop bets for the visiting Rockets, who&#8217;ve gotten frustratingly little from money vacuum Fred VanVleet. I&#8217;m fading VanVleet and looking for another solid game [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":341771,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[62],"tags":[12],"class_list":["post-341734","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nba","tag-nba-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks: Game 3 predictions | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Game 3 Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks. 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