{"id":341398,"date":"2025-04-24T11:18:31","date_gmt":"2025-04-24T15:18:31","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=341398"},"modified":"2025-04-24T12:28:18","modified_gmt":"2025-04-24T16:28:18","slug":"senators-vs-maple-leafs-best-bets-game-3-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/senators-vs-maple-leafs-best-bets-game-3-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Senators vs. Maple Leafs best bets Game 3: Take the over, back defenceman Sanderson and Rielly"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Toronto Maple Leafs can put a stranglehold on the Battle of Ontario as the series shifts to Ottawa.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Expect the Senators to throw everything at the wall on Thursday night while facing the prospect of going down 3-0. My best bet for Game 3 is the over, and I&#8217;m also looking for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nhl\/players\/morgan_rielly\">Morgan Rielly<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nhl\/players\/jake_sanderson\">Jake Sanderson<\/a> to be involved offensively.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets for Game 3 of the opening round.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Maple Leafs vs. Senators best bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Over 5.5 goals (-118)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ottawa has found itself down early in both games. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A quick lead for Toronto might seem nice for this over, but Craig Berube&#8217;s side can clog things up and turn the game into a slog when playing from ahead.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>We just saw that in Game 2, when the Maple Leafs put things in neutral after going up 2-0 through eight minutes en route to a 3-2 overtime win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m expecting Ottawa to score first, and for Toronto to return in kind. Or at least for the Senators to respond immediately to a Maple Leafs goal. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With Linus Ullmark struggling (.800 SV% through two games, career .876 playoff SV%), the Sens can&#8217;t afford to let the game come to them. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If Ottawa gets up early, this could turn into a legit barn-burner. And if the home team is forced to cheat chasing a lead, Toronto could really lay a beating on its rival.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Maple Leafs scored the seventh-most goals per game during the regular season (3.26) and have a red-hot power play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Toronto went over a 5.5-goal total in 28 of 41 road games this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:112911\">Embed: #112911<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/ice_hockey\/nhl?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_nhl\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full NHL betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nhl-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>NHL injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nhl\/top-skaters?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>NHL stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rielly to score 1+ points (+165):<\/strong> Rielly is coming off a dreadful regular season, but the longest-tenured Maple Leaf has a knack for showing up in the postseason.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s scored in both games so far and now has a point in 13 of his last 20 postseason games dating back to the 2022-23 season (17 total points). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the last five postseasons, Rielly has the highest 5-on-5 points per 60 (1.83) of any defenceman with more than 20 games played.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This seems like a great value play to me. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Sanderson over 2.5 shots on goal (+125):<\/strong> I took this bet in Game 1 and it cashed. I&#8217;ll gladly go back to the well on Thursday, and here&#8217;s why:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Toronto had the fourth-worst 5-on-5 Corsi rate (shot attempt differential) in the NHL during the regular season, according to Natural Stat Trick.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Maple Leafs have been out-shot (61-45) and out-chanced (148-95) through two games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Plenty of these shot attempts are low-quality and coming from the outside or at the point. That&#8217;s exactly where Sanderson, Ottawa&#8217;s top-scoring defenceman, is firing from.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The 22-year-old led the team in ice time (24:26) and was second in shots (195) during the regular season. He&#8217;s played a team-high 54:30 through two games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sanderson has logged at least two shots in 12 straight games, clearing this line eight times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 04\/24\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Maple Leafs can put a stranglehold on the Battle of Ontario as the series shifts to Ottawa. The pregame narrative: Expect the Senators to throw everything at the wall on Thursday night while facing the prospect of going down 3-0. My best bet for Game 3 is the over, and I&#8217;m also looking [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":341413,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[49],"class_list":["post-341398","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nhl","tag-nhl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Senators vs. Maple Leafs best bets: Game 3 predictions | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Game 3 Senators vs. Maple Leafs best bets. 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