{"id":341285,"date":"2025-04-23T13:34:57","date_gmt":"2025-04-23T17:34:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=341285"},"modified":"2025-04-23T13:34:57","modified_gmt":"2025-04-23T17:34:57","slug":"blue-jays-vs-astros-sgp-predictions-april-23-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-vs-astros-sgp-predictions-april-23-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays vs. Astros SGP predictions April 23: Fade Bowden Francis as Houston vies for a sweep"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Houston Astros look to complete a sweep against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday night in East Texas.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Bowden Francis gets the ball for Toronto, and I think he&#8217;s due for some regression. I&#8217;m fading Francis&#8217; outs total and backing the Astros to cover an alt run line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my +250 SGP Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions for April 23.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>SGP: Astros +1.5 | Pena over 0.5 hits | Francis under 17.5 outs (+250)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:112880\">Embed: #112880<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong><strong><strong>Astros +1.5 <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>(-190):<\/strong> Toronto is playing .500 ball right now, but its record is propped up by some positive results at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the road, the Jays are 4-7 with a -9 run differential. They&#8217;ve only covered a -1.5 run line twice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Houston, meanwhile, is playing just north of .500 ball thanks to an 8-6 home record that comes with a +14 run differential. The Astros have covered a +1.5 run line nine times at Daikin Park.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And of course, the Astros are on the cusp of issuing a series sweep to the Jays tonight. Houston hasn&#8217;t even trailed yet in this series.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB SGP legs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jeremy <strong>Pena over 0.5 hits<\/strong> (-210):<\/strong> Pena is riding a 13-game hitting streak, and I say he extends it to 14 tonight.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The shortstop is 16-for-48 (.333) since April 8, and he&#8217;s coming off a 3-for-4 night against Toronto on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Baseball Savant, Pena ranks in the 88th percentile in xBA (.302). He&#8217;s also 2-for-4 against Francis, which doesn&#8217;t hurt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One hit isn&#8217;t much of an ask for a heart-of-the-order bat in a groove.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Francis under 17.5 outs (+108):<\/strong> I intend to play this as a solo wager as well. I&#8217;m just not high on Francis at all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Look at how poorly he ranks in a bunch of critical batted-ball metrics:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>4th-percentile hard-hit rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>9th-percentile barrel rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>10th-percentile xERA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>10th-percentile opponent xBA<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>16th-percentile chase rate<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Francis has given up a lot of walks and hard contact but has been bailed out by Toronto&#8217;s defence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s how you can explain the discrepancy between his 3.13 ERA and his 5.42 FIP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last April, in Francis&#8217; first start against the Astros, they torched him for seven earned runs on 10 hits in 5.1 innings. I think they can chase him early from tonight&#8217;s matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And keep in mind that Toronto has a rested bullpen that&#8217;s staring down an off-day on Thursday. None of its three highest-leverage relievers (Jeff Hoffman, Yimi Garcia, Chad Green) have pitched in the past three days.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions made at 1:20 p.m. ET on 04\/23\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Houston Astros look to complete a sweep against the Toronto Blue Jays on Wednesday night in East Texas. The pregame narrative: Bowden Francis gets the ball for Toronto, and I think he&#8217;s due for some regression. I&#8217;m fading Francis&#8217; outs total and backing the Astros to cover an alt run line. Check out my [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":341305,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-341285","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions: April 23 SGP | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays vs. Astros predictions for April 23, 2025. 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