{"id":340877,"date":"2025-04-21T15:13:17","date_gmt":"2025-04-21T19:13:17","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=340877"},"modified":"2025-04-21T15:13:18","modified_gmt":"2025-04-21T19:13:18","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-april-21-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-april-21-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets April 21: Back William Contreras and Max Meyer, fade Robbie Ray"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>I have three prop picks for Monday night&#8217;s light MLB slate, which features seven games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: I expect Miami Marlins starter Max Meyer to stay hot and have plays on William Contreras and Robbie Ray for the last game of the night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-8f1effd0-db18-40a8-916e-091372420d9e\">Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 21.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: <strong>Meyer over 17.5 outs<\/strong> (<strong>-115)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:112754\">Embed: #112754<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Cincinnati Reds have scored five-plus runs in four straight and are coming off a 24-run game on Sunday. Their bats are unquestionably hot. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But so, too, is the starting pitcher they&#8217;ll be up against tonight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Meyer has been dealing, and his last two starts have come against the first-place New York Mets and the Arizona Diamondbacks (third in MLB in runs per game).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Meyer has allowed three runs or fewer in all four starts. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The righty has gone six-plus innings in three consecutive outings. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He has career-best strikeout and walk rates. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Meyer has had the best slider in baseball, per Baseball Savant&#8217;s run value metric. He&#8217;s producing a 47.1% whiff rate on the pitch, a top-10 mark in baseball. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That pitch has been nearly unhittable and effective against both lefties and righties. Via FanGraphs&#8217; Statcast leaderboard, Cincinnati has handled sliders at a bottom-10 rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Miami is in a stretch of games in nine consecutive days, and it hasn&#8217;t gotten more than five innings from a starter since Meyer&#8217;s last turn in the rotation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The club&#8217;s bullpen could use a break and Meyer has the ability to deliver on that. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Meyer has recorded at least 17 outs in seven of his last nine starts dating back to 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Contreras&nbsp;to score&nbsp;(+140)<\/strong>: The Brewers catcher is off to a slow start,&nbsp;but is getting on base at a strong clip.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Contreras enters tonight&#8217;s matchup with a .341 on-base percentage and career-best 14.8% walk rate.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At least to start tonight&#8217;s game, he&#8217;ll face an erratic Ray.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The San Francisco Giants starter has struggled with control issues during his career, and this season is no different.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ray has walked 14 batters over his last three starts, issuing at least four free passes each time out.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The southpaw can get by with his swing-and-miss stuff, so the worry is that he can carve up a struggling&nbsp;Brewers lineup (94 wRC+) and keep runs off the board.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s why I&#8217;m targeting&nbsp;Contreras, Milwaukee&#8217;s No. 3 hitter, over other Brewers players.&nbsp;<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Contreras is a high OBP guy with pop who has hit lefties to the tune of a career 155 wRC+. He&#8217;s a good bet to get on base against Ray via hit or walk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Ray under 16.5 outs (-120):<\/strong> Speaking of Ray, he&#8217;s a fade for me tonight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Giants haven&#8217;t had an off day since April 10, but their starters have been giving them innings. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Each starter over the club&#8217;s weekend three-game set against the Los Angeles Angels went at least six innings. And the game before that, Jordan Hicks went seven frames. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So I&#8217;m less concerned about an overworked bullpen the same way I am with Miami. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ray is 1-3 against this number through four starts. He made seven starts last season and cleared it twice. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As mentioned, Ray can pile up Ks, but that also drives up pitch counts like his poor control does. And he&#8217;s always suffered from home run issues. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In his 11 starts with the Giants since last year, he has a 14% walk rate and 1.80 HR\/9 rate. If he had enough innings to qualify, those would both be the highest marks in MLB over that stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 2:45 p.m. ET on 04\/21\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>I have three prop picks for Monday night&#8217;s light MLB slate, which features seven games. The pregame narrative: I expect Miami Marlins starter Max Meyer to stay hot and have plays on William Contreras and Robbie Ray for the last game of the night. Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 21. MLB [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":340932,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130,155],"class_list":["post-340877","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb","tag-mlb-props"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets April 21: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for April 21, 2025. 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