{"id":340192,"date":"2025-04-18T12:58:36","date_gmt":"2025-04-18T16:58:36","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=340192"},"modified":"2025-04-18T12:58:36","modified_gmt":"2025-04-18T16:58:36","slug":"mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Mariners vs. Blue Jays SGP predictions April 18: Fade Francis and back Guerrero in +325 wager"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners begin a three-game set at Rogers Centre on Friday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/bowden_francis\/pitching-stats\">Bowden Francis<\/a> gets the ball for Toronto, and I&#8217;m fading his alt strikeout total against the red-hot Mariners. Also, bet on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a> to hit for power against Seattle righty Bryan Woo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out my +350 SGP Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for April 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>SGP: Mariners +2.5 | Francis under 5.5 strikeouts | Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+325)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"cacheembed:112645\">Embed: #112645<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong><strong><strong>Mariners +2.5 <\/strong><\/strong><\/strong>(-500):<\/strong> Toronto has enjoyed a good but not great start to the season, posting an 11-8 record ahead of its 20th game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">That said, I feel perfectly safe backing the Mariners to cover this teased-up spread.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Seattle has won six of its last seven games while averaging 6.3 runs.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Toronto has only covered a -2.5 spread in five of 19 games (three times in nine games at home).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Francis was a revelation for the Blue Jays down the stretch last year, but he&#8217;s failed to reproduce that magic through three starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The righty has a 3.71 ERA, but his 12th-percentile xERA (6.01) suggests he&#8217;s been a bit lucky. Francis also owns a 21st-percentile xBA (.282) and 12th-percentile hard-hit rate (52.2%). I don&#8217;t trust him to keep Seattle&#8217;s red-hot bats at bay.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Woo, meanwhile, has posted a solid 2.83 ERA with a nearly identical 2.85 xERA. The Mariners have covered a +2.5 spread in nine of his last 10 starts dating back to 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">MLB SGP legs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>Francis under 5.5 strikeouts<\/strong> (-225):<\/strong> Francis has a knack for pitching deep into ballgames, and that will naturally help him accumulate strikeouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But the righty has never been an elite swing-and-miss arm:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2024:<\/strong> 22.5% K rate (46th percentile), 21.2% whiff rate (15th percentile)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>2025:<\/strong> 21.7% K rate (47th percentile), 24.6% whiff rate (44th percentile)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Francis relies on producing soft contact to succeed, and he hasn&#8217;t been getting that this year. With the way Seattle is hitting the ball, I can anticipate a short outing on the horizon.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And if Francis isn&#8217;t pitching six-plus innings, I doubt he&#8217;s going to clear this total. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+123):<\/strong> Adding Guerrero to this wager skyrockets our SGP&#8217;s value from -150 to +325. Not bad, right?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Vladdy is &#8220;slumping&#8221; to start the season, but he&#8217;s still hitting .292 and giving quality at-bats. The problem has been a lack of power, though I&#8217;m hoping Guerrero&#8217;s first home run on Wednesday will open the floodgates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">And the slugger&#8217;s 95th-percentile xBA (.334) and 82nd-percentile xSLG (.535) indicate he should be performing better, anyway.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">We&#8217;re talking about a guy who had the sixth-most total bases in MLB last year. Guerrero should be an auto-play at this price, even against a pitcher like Woo.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 04\/18\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners begin a three-game set at Rogers Centre on Friday. The pregame narrative: Bowden Francis gets the ball for Toronto, and I&#8217;m fading his alt strikeout total against the red-hot Mariners. Also, bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit for power against Seattle righty Bryan Woo. Check out my [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":340206,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-340192","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions: April 18 SGP | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for April 18, 2025. MLB betting odds and SGP picks for Friday&#039;s game in Toronto.\" \/>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"index, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<link rel=\"canonical\" href=\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions: April 18 SGP | NorthStar Bets\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Check out our Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for April 18, 2025. MLB betting odds and SGP picks for Friday&#039;s game in Toronto.\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"The Boost\" \/>\n<meta property=\"article:published_time\" content=\"2025-04-18T16:58:36+00:00\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:image\" content=\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2025\/04\/CP172962388-2-scaled.webp\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:width\" content=\"2560\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:height\" content=\"1707\" \/>\n\t<meta property=\"og:image:type\" content=\"image\/webp\" \/>\n<meta name=\"author\" content=\"Avery Perri\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:creator\" content=\"@AveryPerri\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Written by\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"Avery Perri\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:label2\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data2\" content=\"3 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025\/\",\"name\":\"Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions: April 18 SGP | NorthStar Bets\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website\"},\"datePublished\":\"2025-04-18T16:58:36+00:00\",\"dateModified\":\"2025-04-18T16:58:36+00:00\",\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc93da056637fd792d24b930d5cda31\"},\"description\":\"Check out our Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for April 18, 2025. MLB betting odds and SGP picks for Friday's game in Toronto.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"ReadAction\",\"target\":[\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025\/\"]}]},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/\",\"name\":\"The Boost\",\"description\":\"\",\"potentialAction\":[{\"@type\":\"SearchAction\",\"target\":{\"@type\":\"EntryPoint\",\"urlTemplate\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?s={search_term_string}\"},\"query-input\":\"required name=search_term_string\"}],\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\"},{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc93da056637fd792d24b930d5cda31\",\"name\":\"Avery Perri\",\"image\":{\"@type\":\"ImageObject\",\"inLanguage\":\"en-CA\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7771.jpg\",\"contentUrl\":\"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7771.jpg\",\"caption\":\"Avery Perri\"},\"description\":\"Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf \u2014 mainly because it\u2019s easier than actually playing \u2014 but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.\",\"sameAs\":[\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/home\",\"https:\/\/twitter.com\/AveryPerri\"],\"url\":\"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/author\/averyjperrigmail-com\/\"}]}<\/script>\n<!-- \/ Yoast SEO plugin. -->","yoast_head_json":{"title":"Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions: April 18 SGP | NorthStar Bets","description":"Check out our Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for April 18, 2025. MLB betting odds and SGP picks for Friday's game in Toronto.","robots":{"index":"index","follow":"follow","max-snippet":"max-snippet:-1","max-image-preview":"max-image-preview:large","max-video-preview":"max-video-preview:-1"},"canonical":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025\/","og_locale":"en_US","og_type":"article","og_title":"Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions: April 18 SGP | NorthStar Bets","og_description":"Check out our Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for April 18, 2025. MLB betting odds and SGP picks for Friday's game in Toronto.","og_url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025\/","og_site_name":"The Boost","article_published_time":"2025-04-18T16:58:36+00:00","og_image":[{"width":2560,"height":1707,"url":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2025\/04\/CP172962388-2-scaled.webp","type":"image\/webp"}],"author":"Avery Perri","twitter_card":"summary_large_image","twitter_creator":"@AveryPerri","twitter_misc":{"Written by":"Avery Perri","Est. reading time":"3 minutes"},"schema":{"@context":"https:\/\/schema.org","@graph":[{"@type":"WebPage","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025\/","url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025\/","name":"Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions: April 18 SGP | NorthStar Bets","isPartOf":{"@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website"},"datePublished":"2025-04-18T16:58:36+00:00","dateModified":"2025-04-18T16:58:36+00:00","author":{"@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc93da056637fd792d24b930d5cda31"},"description":"Check out our Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for April 18, 2025. MLB betting odds and SGP picks for Friday's game in Toronto.","inLanguage":"en-CA","potentialAction":[{"@type":"ReadAction","target":["https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mariners-vs-blue-jays-sgp-predictions-april-18-2025\/"]}]},{"@type":"WebSite","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#website","url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/","name":"The Boost","description":"","potentialAction":[{"@type":"SearchAction","target":{"@type":"EntryPoint","urlTemplate":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?s={search_term_string}"},"query-input":"required name=search_term_string"}],"inLanguage":"en-CA"},{"@type":"Person","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/fbc93da056637fd792d24b930d5cda31","name":"Avery Perri","image":{"@type":"ImageObject","inLanguage":"en-CA","@id":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/#\/schema\/person\/image\/","url":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7771.jpg","contentUrl":"https:\/\/nsb-news.s3.ca-central-1.amazonaws.com\/imgs\/2024\/11\/IMG_7771.jpg","caption":"Avery Perri"},"description":"Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf \u2014 mainly because it\u2019s easier than actually playing \u2014 but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.","sameAs":["https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/home","https:\/\/twitter.com\/AveryPerri"],"url":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/author\/averyjperrigmail-com\/"}]}},"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340192","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=340192"}],"version-history":[{"count":16,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340192\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":340216,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/340192\/revisions\/340216"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/340206"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=340192"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=340192"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=340192"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}