{"id":340108,"date":"2025-04-17T11:51:46","date_gmt":"2025-04-17T15:51:46","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=340108"},"modified":"2025-04-17T11:51:47","modified_gmt":"2025-04-17T15:51:47","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-april-17","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-april-17\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets April 17: Bet on Witt to score, fade Canning vs. Cardinals"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/bobby_witt_jr\/batting-stats\">Bobby Witt Jr.<\/a> is on a roll right now, and I think he can keep that going on Thursday night against the Detroit Tigers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: Witt is an elite hitter who also possesses top-tier speed, and that combo makes him a compelling play to score a run. I&#8217;m also taking the over on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/taj_bradley\/pitching-stats\">Taj Bradley<\/a>&#8216;s strikeouts prop and fading <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/griffin_canning\/pitching-stats\">Griffin Canning<\/a> in the same market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-8f1effd0-db18-40a8-916e-091372420d9e\">Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 17.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\"><strong>MLB player stats<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\"><strong>MLB standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: <strong>Canning under 4.5 strikeouts<\/strong> (<strong>-118)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canning isn&#8217;t a flashy guy to have a bet on, but don&#8217;t let the lack of brand recognition get in the way of a logical fade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A perennial back-of-rotation starter, Canning used to at least hover around the 9.0 K\/9 rate on an annual basis. But he dipped to a 6.8 K\/9 last year, and I&#8217;m not confident in him to bump the rate back up.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Canning is trying to simplify things in 2025, cutting the curveball out of his arsenal and sticking to a three-pitch mix. His fastball has below-average velocity (93.3 mph, versus 94.5 mph as the MLB average for righties).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His slider is his out pitch, and he&#8217;s throwing it more than 40.0% of the time, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But given that the St. Louis Cardinals \u2014 tonight&#8217;s opponent \u2014 have the fourth-lowest whiff rate on sliders (27.9%), I doubt we&#8217;ll see him rack up strikeouts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>St. Louis also has the fifth-lowest K rate in the majors (19.5%). Five consecutive starters have gone under 4.5 Ks against the Cardinals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Expect Canning to be the sixth.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Since the start of last season, Canning has gone under 4.5 Ks in 23 of 34 starts (67.6%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bradley over 6.5 Ks (-118):<\/strong> Three starts into 2025, Bradley has deployed a balanced attack from the mound, and it&#8217;s been effective.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>All four of his pitches have a whiff rate between 25.0% and 28.6%. That means none of them have been elite, but each of them (four-seamer, cutter, splitter, curveball) can be called upon based on feel.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Bradley has exactly seven Ks in all three starts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>His 30.9% K rate ranks in the 84th percentile.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m not blown away by Bradley&#8217;s pitch metrics, but I am inclined to back him in a plus matchup against the free-swinging New York Yankees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Yankees have the sixth-highest K rate (24.6%) and the third-highest whiff rate (28.3%) in MLB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bradley struck out seven over 6.0 innings when he faced the Yankees at home a season ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Witt over 0.5 runs (+100):<\/strong> Witt is really, really good. Let&#8217;s start there.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last year&#8217;s AL MVP runner-up ranks in the 99th percentile in xBA (.349) and 95th percentile in xwOBA (.423).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So far this season, Witt is batting .310 and currently owns a nine-game hit streak. He has also scored in eight of his past 13 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>What really pushes this pick over the line for me is Witt&#8217;s history against Detroit Tigers starter Reese Olson:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>6-for-11 (.545)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4 extra-base hits (2 HRs)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.926 xSLG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>99.5 mph average exit velocity<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 11:31 a.m. ET on 04\/17\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Bobby Witt Jr. is on a roll right now, and I think he can keep that going on Thursday night against the Detroit Tigers. The pregame narrative: Witt is an elite hitter who also possesses top-tier speed, and that combo makes him a compelling play to score a run. I&#8217;m also taking the over on [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":340080,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-340108","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets April 17: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for April 17, 2025. 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