{"id":339967,"date":"2025-04-16T09:38:41","date_gmt":"2025-04-16T13:38:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=339967"},"modified":"2025-04-16T09:38:42","modified_gmt":"2025-04-16T13:38:42","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-braves-april-16-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-braves-april-16-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Braves vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 16: Bet on Spencer Strider to dominate in 2025 season debut"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Spencer Strider makes his 2025 season debut Wednesday afternoon in a rubber match between the Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> You never know what you&#8217;ll get out of a pitcher coming off an extended injury absence, but Strider has shown plenty of positives in his rehab outings. I&#8217;m backing the right-hander to cash a plus-money strikeout prop, and I also have picks on Austin Riley and Alejandro Kirk.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Braves for April 16.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Braves<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Strider over 6.5 strikeouts (+133)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:112580\">Embed: #112580<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s exciting to have Strider back in the majors, and I expect him to remind everybody just how good he is.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strider&#8217;s last MLB outing came just over a year ago, after which he had season-ending elbow surgery before a long climb back to the Braves.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But unlike a hitter who may need time to adjust to big-league pitching again, I think Strider can get right back to top form on the mound. His stuff plays anywhere.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strider&#8217;s fastball velocity is still a couple of ticks behind its top form, currently sitting at 95.7 mph after three outings with Triple-A Gwinnett. But it still averaged two additional inches of induced vertical break (i.e., rise) compared to the average MLB starter&#8217;s fastball, according to MLB.com&#8217;s David Adler.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After being essentially a two-pitch starter in his first two full seasons, Strider heightened his deployment of two additional offerings (changeup, curveball) during his rehab assignment.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With Gwinnett, Strider&#8217;s changeup had 32 inches of vertical drop \u2014 five more than he&#8217;d ever averaged in the majors. And his curveball had 12 inches of vertical drop, which was three more than he&#8217;d averaged in 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enough about pitch shapes, though. How has it all been working out for Strider?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;d say the minor-league outings speak for themselves:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong>March 29:<\/strong> 3.0 IP, 6 Ks, 1 R<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>April 4: <\/strong>5.1 IP, 8 Ks, 0 R<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong>April 10:<\/strong> 5.1 IP, 13 Ks, 1 R<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In his final start, Strider stretched out to 90 pitches and fanned 13 of 21 batters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;ll obviously face a tougher lineup on Wednesday, but he&#8217;s built up nicely and is accustomed to clearing this strikeout total at the MLB level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2023 \u2014 his most recent full season \u2014 Strider went over 6.5 Ks in 27 of 32 outings.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Strider&#8217;s 483 strikeouts from 2022-23 were the most among any MLB pitcher in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Riley over 1.5 bases (+123):<\/strong> Riley is on a heater, and this is a solid price to back him at.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The third baseman is 4-for-8 at Rogers Centre in this series, and three of those hits left the yard.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s now riding an eight-game hitting streak, featuring some truly gaudy numbers:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>16-for-35 (.457)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1.358 OPS<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>7 extra-base hits<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2+ bases in 7 of 8<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Riley is 3-for-11 with a homer against Toronto starter Chris Bassitt, which equates to a .545 SLG. His contact quality has clearly been good in this matchup, as Baseball Savant grades him at a .600 xSLG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Kirk under 0.5 hits (+140):<\/strong> Kirk might not contribute much to Strider&#8217;s strikeout total, but I think he has a fair chance of going hitless on Wednesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Kirk ranks in the 37th percentile in xBA (.233) and in the 25th percentile in xSLG (.331). He&#8217;s been hitless in six of 13 starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As a right-hitting player, Kirk will have Strider&#8217;s elite slider running away from him. In 2023, that slider generated a 55.3% whiff rate (third among all pitches that year).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Strider has held righties to a .188 BA in his career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Braves vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:23 a.m. ET on 04\/16\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Spencer Strider makes his 2025 season debut Wednesday afternoon in a rubber match between the Atlanta Braves and Toronto Blue Jays. The pregame narrative: You never know what you&#8217;ll get out of a pitcher coming off an extended injury absence, but Strider has shown plenty of positives in his rehab outings. I&#8217;m backing the right-hander [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":339970,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-339967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Braves: April 16 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Braves for April 16, 2025. 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