{"id":339772,"date":"2025-04-14T11:46:06","date_gmt":"2025-04-14T15:46:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=339772"},"modified":"2025-04-14T11:46:07","modified_gmt":"2025-04-14T15:46:07","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-braves-april-14","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-braves-april-14\/","title":{"rendered":"Braves vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 14: Fade Guerrero, bet on Ozuna to score"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>For the first time in nearly two weeks, the Toronto Blue Jays are back home at Rogers Centre with the Atlanta Braves in town.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Toronto starter Easton Lucas has been strong through two outings, but I&#8217;m backing a pair of Braves sluggers \u2014 <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/marcell_ozuna\/batting-stats\">Marcell Ozuna<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/matt_olson\/batting-stats\">Matt Olson<\/a> \u2014 to deal some damage on Monday night. On the Jays&#8217; side, I think <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/vladimir_guerrero_jr\/batting-stats\">Vladimir Guerrero Jr.<\/a>&#8216;s bases prop is in the fade zone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Braves for April 14.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Braves<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Ozuna over 0.5 runs (-118)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I thought about backing Ozuna over 1.5 bases at a slightly better price (-106), but his sky-high walk rate steered me in a different direction.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ozuna&#8217;s league-leading walk rate (24.6%) is unsustainable, but he has demonstrated better plate discipline than we&#8217;ve ever seen from him before. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So far this season \u2014 and I get that it&#8217;s early \u2014 Ozuna has a 17.5% chase rate, which ranks in the 96th percentile according to Baseball Savant. His previous season high is 26.0% back in 2021.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All of that is to say, walks are a risk for potentially backing Ozuna&#8217;s bases prop. But a free pass wouldn&#8217;t be the worst thing for his run prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And let&#8217;s not forget that he can still really mash the baseball.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>98th percentile average EV (95.6 mph)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>86th percentile hard-hit rate (53.1%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Through 15 games, Ozuna has a .306\/.477\/.531 slash line. He has scored nine runs so far this month, cashing his run prop in seven of 10 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh, and he happens to be a particularly elite slugger when facing left-handed pitching, as he will tonight with Lucas on the mound.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Since 2023, Ozuna&#8217;s 156 wRC+ against LHPs ranks 10th among 128 qualified hitters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Olson over 0.5 RBI (+145):<\/strong> This pick will hopefully go hand-in-hand with my Ozuna best bet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ozuna bats third in the Braves&#8217; order, and Olson is right behind him in the cleanup spot. As a result, Olson has seen a lot of RBI opportunities so far this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Olson&#8217;s 23 plate appearances with runners in scoring position is tied for the ninth-most in MLB.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Despite only posting a .617 OPS in his past nine games, Olson has eight RBI in that span. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>A lefty-on-lefty matchup shouldn&#8217;t bother Olson too much, as he still owns an .801 OPS in his career against southpaws.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As for Lucas, his very early returns with a platoon &#8220;advantage&#8221; have been rough: 48 plate appearances, .884 OPS allowed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Guerrero under 1.5 bases (-130):<\/strong> The power outage is real for Vlad Jr. right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I cashed Guerrero <em>over<\/em> 1.5 bases yesterday, but only because he collected a pair of singles. Guerrero is batting .302 with a .365 SLG so far, which is almost difficult to do.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The $500 million man is still homer-less on the year and only has one extra-base knock in his past nine games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Atlanta starter Grant Holmes has issued eight walks through two starts, which could be a way for Vladdy to get on without needing to power up. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;ll break out at some point, but this is a fair price to buy into the fade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Braves vs. Blue Jays picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 04\/14\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>For the first time in nearly two weeks, the Toronto Blue Jays are back home at Rogers Centre with the Atlanta Braves in town. The pregame narrative: Toronto starter Easton Lucas has been strong through two outings, but I&#8217;m backing a pair of Braves sluggers \u2014 Marcell Ozuna and Matt Olson \u2014 to deal some [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":339769,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-339772","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Braves: April 14 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Braves for April 14, 2025. 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