{"id":339673,"date":"2025-04-13T11:33:19","date_gmt":"2025-04-13T15:33:19","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=339673"},"modified":"2025-04-13T11:33:20","modified_gmt":"2025-04-13T15:33:20","slug":"mlb-prop-bets-april-13","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/mlb-prop-bets-april-13\/","title":{"rendered":"Best MLB prop bets April 13: Ride with Freddy Peralta, Brandon Nimmo"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/freddy_peralta\/pitching-stats\">Freddy Peralta<\/a> headlines my MLB prop bets for Sunday, which include additional plus-money plays on <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/kyle_hendricks\/pitching-stats\">Kyle Hendricks<\/a> and <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/brandon_nimmo\/batting-stats\">Brandon Nimmo<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: Nimmo is putting up modern-day slugger numbers right now, with a low batting average but plenty of power potential. I like him to go over 1.5 bases, while I think Peralta and Hendricks are strong candidates to clear their strikeout totals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-8f1effd0-db18-40a8-916e-091372420d9e\">Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 13.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">MLB prop bets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: <strong>Nimmo over <\/strong>1.5 bases (<strong>+110)<\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nimmo&#8217;s offensive philosophy so far in 2025 is &#8220;quality over quantity.&#8221; That can play for a bases prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The New York Mets&#8217; cleanup hitter is only 11-for-53 (.208), but that includes four home runs and a pair of doubles. So his .472 SLG still looks pretty solid.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And the batted-ball metrics at Baseball Savant have held up, indicating that Nimmo is generating the type of contact worth of extra-base knocks:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>90th percentile xSLG (.601)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>92nd percentile barrel rate (18.6%)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>94th percentile hard-hit rate (58.1%)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In 10 MLB seasons, Nimmo has never been an all-star. He&#8217;s not a flashy pick, but he&#8217;s off to a strong start that appears to be an underperformance relative to his underlying numbers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And given that only has four walks so far in 14 games, I like my chances that he&#8217;ll give himself plenty of chances to put the ball in play and see what happens.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Nimmo has homered in the first two games of the Mets&#8217; current series against the Athletics in Sacramento. Ideally he cashes this prop with one swing on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Nimmo is 4-for-7 with a home run and a double against A&#8217;s starter Luis Severino.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Best MLB picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Hendricks over 3.5 strikeouts (+130):<\/strong> Hendricks is a low-velocity pitcher who doesn&#8217;t rely on strikeouts to find success. But he&#8217;s worth a look when the strikeout number is this low and comes with a plus-money price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Hendricks&#8217; fastball velocity (86.4 mph) is the lowest in the majors, per Baseball Savant. But his changeup still generates whiffs at a high clip, and that&#8217;ll be the key pitch for him on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Houston Astros, who Hendricks will face, have the sixth-highest whiff rate in the majors against changeups (36.5%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Houston also has the 12th-highest K% in MLB so far (23.8%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Hendricks finished with exactly four Ks in both of his previous starts this season. He&#8217;s only faced two of the Astros&#8217; starting hitters, and hopefully that lack of familiarity will work in his favour, too.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Peralta over 5.5 strikeouts (+100):<\/strong> The Arizona Diamondbacks have the third-lowest K rate against right-handers (18.6%), which is certainly the biggest concern for this pick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But Peralta has been nasty so far, with an 89th-percentile whiff rate (34.8%), and I&#8217;m trusting his stuff in spite of a subpar matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep in mind that Peralta has a perfectly respectable K rate against this D-backs roster (26.2% in 61 plate appearances) and has cashed this bet in all three outings this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dating back to last year, Peralta is averaging 6.3 Ks per start in 35 starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-84329f2b-7888-4034-9979-03e8608897e5\"><em>MLB prop picks made at 11:25 a.m. ET on 04\/13\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Freddy Peralta headlines my MLB prop bets for Sunday, which include additional plus-money plays on Kyle Hendricks and Brandon Nimmo. The pregame narrative: Nimmo is putting up modern-day slugger numbers right now, with a low batting average but plenty of power potential. I like him to go over 1.5 bases, while I think Peralta and [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":339631,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-339673","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>MLB prop bets April 13: Picks, predictions &amp; odds | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best MLB prop bets for April 13, 2025. 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