{"id":337969,"date":"2025-04-04T12:53:56","date_gmt":"2025-04-04T16:53:56","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=337969"},"modified":"2025-04-04T13:40:04","modified_gmt":"2025-04-04T17:40:04","slug":"blue-jays-picks-vs-mets-april-4-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-picks-vs-mets-april-4-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays vs. Mets prop picks April 4: Fade Kevin Gausman, back Juan Soto to score"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Kevin Gausman has had issues in the past against the New York Mets&#8217; lineup, and I&#8217;m fading him in Friday&#8217;s series opener at Citi Field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Gausman&#8217;s primary nemesis is first-year Met Juan Soto, who&#8217;s featured in my best bet for tonight. I also like the under on Gausman&#8217;s strikeouts prop.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Mets for April 4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays picks vs. Mets<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">MLB stats &amp; standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Soto over 0.5 runs (-112)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:112126\">Embed: #112126<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I was really tempted to back Soto over 1.5 bases (+130). But his bat hasn&#8217;t really gotten going yet, and his tendency to draw walks is too high.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Though I don&#8217;t like making a habit of minus-odds run props, this one is perfectly palatable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Just look at how well Soto has fared in his past experiences against Gausman:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>8-for-15 (.533)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>12 walks<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.741 OBP<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.867 SLG<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>As mentioned, Soto has been quiet on offence so far, batting 5-for-27 (.238) through six games. But he also has six walks and has reached safely in every matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Though Soto leads the way, he isn&#8217;t the only Met who has thrived against Gausman. As a collective lineup, New York has a .319 BA and a .542 SLG against the righty in 97 plate appearances. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I love Soto&#8217;s chances of finding a way on base. He ranked in the 100th percentile in xBA and walk rate last year, per Baseball Savant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From the No. 2 spot in the Mets&#8217; order, there should be at least a couple of capable bats behind him who can get to Gausman and bring Soto around.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> As a Yankee, Soto scored a run in all four matchups against Gausman last year, reaching base 14 times in those games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Prop predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Gausman under 5.5 Ks (-125):<\/strong> Gausman&#8217;s strikeout numbers plummeted last season, and that&#8217;s something to watch for in 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Last year, Gausman had an 8.1 K\/9 and a 21.4 K%. In each of the previous five seasons, he&#8217;d had at least a 10.0 K\/9 and 25.3 K%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s early, but the Mets don&#8217;t look like a team he&#8217;ll be able to rack up strikeouts against.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>NYM has the 9th-lowest K% in the majors (20.7).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Opposing starters have gone under 5.5 Ks in 4 of 6 games vs. the Mets.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Gausman had four Ks in 6.0 innings against the Orioles in his season debut. Last year, he went under 5.5 Ks in 18 of 31 starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Blue Jays vs. Mets picks made at 10:20 a.m. ET on 04\/04\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Kevin Gausman has had issues in the past against the New York Mets&#8217; lineup, and I&#8217;m fading him in Friday&#8217;s series opener at Citi Field. The pregame narrative: Gausman&#8217;s primary nemesis is first-year Met Juan Soto, who&#8217;s featured in my best bet for tonight. I also like the under on Gausman&#8217;s strikeouts prop. Check out [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":337981,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-337969","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays picks vs. Mets: April 4 MLB betting | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Blue Jays picks vs. Mets for April 4, 2025. 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