{"id":337560,"date":"2025-04-01T11:43:47","date_gmt":"2025-04-01T15:43:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=337560"},"modified":"2025-04-01T12:20:42","modified_gmt":"2025-04-01T16:20:42","slug":"nationals-vs-blue-jays-prop-picks-april-1","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nationals-vs-blue-jays-prop-picks-april-1\/","title":{"rendered":"Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 1: Fade Jose Berrios, ride with Nathaniel Lowe"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Jose Berrios looks to bounce back from an ugly Opening Day start when he and the Toronto Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> I have two MLB prop predictions for tonight, including a fade of Berrios. On Washington&#8217;s side, I&#8217;m targeting Nate Lowe at even money.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks for April 1.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/baseball\/competitions\/10065\">Full MLB betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report\">MLB injury report<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging\">MLB player stats<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/standings\/division\">MLB standings<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best bet: Berrios under 5.5 Ks (-154)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the first few weeks of the season, it&#8217;s easy to rush to overreactions \u2014 good and bad. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>So maybe it seems like the expected thing for me to fade Berrios after his atrocious outing (six runs on nine hits in 5.0 innings) on March 27.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But take a look at Berrios&#8217; three full seasons with the Blue Jays, and you&#8217;ll notice he&#8217;s an exceptionally durable pitcher who lacks elite strikeout stuff (MLB percentile rankings in parentheses):<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Season<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>K%<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Whiff %<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2022<\/td><td>19.8% (28th)<\/td><td>21.3% (15th)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2023<\/td><td>23.5% (50th)<\/td><td>25.5% (46th)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024<\/td><td>19.5% (22nd)<\/td><td>21.1% (13th)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Last season, according to Baseball Savant, Berrios finished in the bottom-25th percentile in xERA, xBA, whiff rate, K rate and hard-hit rate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>One poor start in 2025 isn&#8217;t a trend. But coming off a rough season, it certainly doesn&#8217;t inspire confidence.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The tricky thing about betting unders with Berrios is that he has a long leash. In 2024, he tossed at least 6.0 IP in 23 of 32 starts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the Nationals are one of the least strikeout-friendly squads in the majors, so I&#8217;m still willing to take the plunge. Since the start of last season, the Nats have the seventh-lowest K rate in MLB (20.7%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Washington&#8217;s lineup only struck out four times in 6.0 IP against Bowden Francis on Monday. Even if Berrios pushes for the sixth inning, I think this under is attainable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Berrios only has six Ks in 45 plate appearances against the active Nationals lineup (13.3 K%). Washington hitters are 12-for-42 (.286) against him, with two homers and a double. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Prop prediction<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Lowe over 1.5 hits\/runs\/RBI (+100):<\/strong> Through the first week-ish of the season, Lowe has been an all-or-nothing type of masher.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>6-for-16 (.375)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>.813 SLG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>8 Ks<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Five of his eight balls in play clocked in at 104-plus mph, but half of his at-bats ended in a strikeout.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I&#8217;m not terribly concerned about his strikeout issues against Berrios, and I like that they have some familiarity already.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Lowe, formerly of the Texas Rangers, is 4-for-6 off Berrios.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks made at 11:40 a.m. ET on 04\/01\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Jose Berrios looks to bounce back from an ugly Opening Day start when he and the Toronto Blue Jays host the Washington Nationals on Tuesday night. The pregame narrative: I have two MLB prop predictions for tonight, including a fade of Berrios. On Washington&#8217;s side, I&#8217;m targeting Nate Lowe at even money. Check out my [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":337557,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,60],"tags":[10],"class_list":["post-337560","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-mlb","tag-mlb-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks: April 1 MLB betting | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Nationals vs. Blue Jays prop picks for April 1, 2025. 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