{"id":335030,"date":"2025-03-20T11:57:23","date_gmt":"2025-03-20T15:57:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=335030"},"modified":"2025-03-20T11:57:24","modified_gmt":"2025-03-20T15:57:24","slug":"uc-san-diego-vs-michigan-first-round-sgp-predictions-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/uc-san-diego-vs-michigan-first-round-sgp-predictions-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"UC San Diego vs. Michigan first-round SGP predictions: Fade the Wolverines but back Danny Wolf"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The No. 5 Michigan Wolverines are on upset watch Thursday night in a late matchup against the No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Michigan is a narrow favourite despite just winning the Big Ten tournament on Sunday afternoon. I&#8217;m tacking a few extra points on UC San Diego&#8217;s alt spread, and combining that with props on Danny Wolf and Hayden Gray in a +280 SGP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my UC San Diego vs. Michigan SGP predictions for their first-round matchup on March 20.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">UC San Diego vs. Michigan predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/basketball\/ncaab\"><strong>Full March Madness Markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/march\"><strong>PLAY NOW: Un-Bustable Bracket Challenge<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Parlay: UC San Diego +5.5 | <strong><strong>Wolf<\/strong><\/strong> 25+ PRA | Gray 2+ threes (+280)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:111484\">Embed: #111484<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>UC San Diego +5.5<\/strong> (-175):<\/strong> There&#8217;s a chance I&#8217;ve got too many eggs in the UC San Diego basket. I like the Tritons <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/march-madness-upset-picks-2025-first-round\">to win outright<\/a> against Michigan, and I&#8217;m also backing them at this alt spread in <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/march-madness-parlay-predictions-first-round-march-20-2025\">a +309 first-round parlay<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But dammit, let&#8217;s triple down. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>UC San Diego is on a 15-game win streak \u2014 the longest active streak in NCAA Division I.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Tritons have the best average turnover margin in D-I (+7.3).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Michigan&#8217;s main fallibility is ball control. The Wolverines have a -2.7 average turnover margin and commit the 23rd-most turnovers in the country.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Tritons are undersized, but they shoot a lot of 3s, and they shoot them well (57th in D-I in 3PT%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UCSD also has the best ATS mark in the country (25-7). Michigan is just 10-16 ATS as a favourite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NCAA SGP legs<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Wolf 25+ PRA<\/strong> (-220):<\/strong> Speaking of UCSD&#8217;s lack of size, that should make things a little easier for Wolf to operate on Thursday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>None of the Tritons&#8217; rotational players are taller than 6-foot-8, so Wolf (7 feet) will have a notable size advantage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Wolf is on a great statistical run in the past five games:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>17.0 PPG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>10.8 RPG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3.8 APG<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>25+ PRA in 4 of 5<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>He&#8217;s a double-double threat on a nightly basis and should be a menace on the glass for any of UCSD&#8217;s errant 3-pointers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Offensively, he&#8217;s attempted 11.4 shots per game since the start of February and should have a stable floor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Gray 2+ threes<\/strong> (-180):<\/strong> Gray is on a heater from beyond the 3-point line, and this is a reasonable way to buy in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Over his past 16 games, Gray is 37-of-80 (46.3%) from deep.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He has 2+ threes in 11 of those 16 games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Shot volume is a concern for Gray sometimes, but I&#8217;m hoping he won&#8217;t be shy about chucking 3 against Michigan. UCSD should be encouraged to live on the perimeter, given that the Wolverines have two 7-footers clogging the paint.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Michigan allows the 77th-most 3s per game in D-I.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>UC San Diego vs. Michigan predictions made at 11:30 a.m. on 03\/20\/25<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The No. 5 Michigan Wolverines are on upset watch Thursday night in a late matchup against the No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons. The pregame narrative: Michigan is a narrow favourite despite just winning the Big Ten tournament on Sunday afternoon. I&#8217;m tacking a few extra points on UC San Diego&#8217;s alt spread, and combining [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":335078,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[75],"tags":[21],"class_list":["post-335030","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-basketball","tag-college-basketball-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>UC San Diego vs. Michigan predictions: First-round SGP | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our UC San Diego vs. Michigan predictions. 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