{"id":334461,"date":"2025-03-17T15:46:26","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T19:46:26","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=334461"},"modified":"2025-03-18T09:11:41","modified_gmt":"2025-03-18T13:11:41","slug":"march-madness-first-four-predictions-2025-ncaa-tournament","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/march-madness-first-four-predictions-2025-ncaa-tournament\/","title":{"rendered":"March Madness First Four predictions March 18: Bet on San Diego State to cover vs. North Carolina"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The very first March Madness action of the year tips off Tuesday with a pair of First Four play-in matchups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Can the North Carolina Tar Heels prove their doubters wrong in an 11-vs.-11 matchup? Maybe, but I still expect the San Diego State Aztecs to cover. In the earlier game, fade a pair of disastrous offences.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my March Madness First Four best bets for March 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">March Madness First Four predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/can01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.northstarbets.ca%2Fsportsbook%2Fsports-hub%2Fbasketball%2Fncaab&amp;data=05%7C02%7CJordan.Horrobin%40northstargaming.ca%7Cbeebaea6edef4ee6bff508dd6559142b%7Ca474078ecda74c118881901a044d2bef%7C0%7C0%7C638778155464096400%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=YpNgDkdfZ%2BeP5BoA6jmv5cSlxJl53smxrlbwYUmGXW0%3D&amp;reserved=0\">Full March Madness Markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/can01.safelinks.protection.outlook.com\/?url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.northstarbets.ca%2Fsportsbook%2Fnews%2Fmarch&amp;data=05%7C02%7CJordan.Horrobin%40northstargaming.ca%7Cbeebaea6edef4ee6bff508dd6559142b%7Ca474078ecda74c118881901a044d2bef%7C0%7C0%7C638778155464120503%7CUnknown%7CTWFpbGZsb3d8eyJFbXB0eU1hcGkiOnRydWUsIlYiOiIwLjAuMDAwMCIsIlAiOiJXaW4zMiIsIkFOIjoiTWFpbCIsIldUIjoyfQ%3D%3D%7C0%7C%7C%7C&amp;sdata=ev7AbXrklRhS5b%2BeAH3I4J12SpqfJ3N3WktmiUo9iMA%3D&amp;reserved=0\">PLAY NOW: Un-Bustable Bracket Challenge<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: St. Francis\/Alabama State under 140.5 points (-110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:111340\">Embed: #111340<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s shocking that the St. Francis Red Flash found their way into the tournament given how atrocious their offence was in the Northeast Conference championship game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In a nails-on-the-chalkboard game that featured just 89 total points, the Red Flash shot 31.7% from the field while sinking 3-of-7 free throws. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their offence isn&#8217;t always <em>that<\/em> bad, but it hardly sets the world on fire. According to KenPom.com, St. Francis ranks 299th out of 364 schools in offensive efficiency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Alabama State Hornets aren&#8217;t much better (270th), and they&#8217;ve played a ton of low-scoring games lately.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Unders are 8-2 in Alabama State&#8217;s past 10 games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>In that span, the average total in Alabama State games is 131.8 points.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Offensively, the Hornets attempt a lot of 3-pointers (27.2\/game, 44th-most in NCAA Division I). But that lines up well for the Red Flash, who&#8217;ve allowed a 32.3 3PT% this season (92nd in D-I).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All three of St. Francis&#8217; conference tourney games went under this total, and the Red Flash should keep that postseason streak alive on Tuesday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Unders are 20-12-1 this season in Alabama State matchups, per Team Rankings, which includes an 11-7 record when the Hornets are favoured.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>San Diego State +4.5 (-117):<\/strong> Many college basketball pundits and casual fans were puzzled \u2014 if not incensed \u2014 to see the North Carolina Tar Heels added to the 68-team field. And I can see why.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you wanted to spin UNC&#8217;s situation positively, you&#8217;d say the team is 8-2 in its past 10 games and both losses came against Duke.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But if you look closer, you&#8217;ll see that the Tar Heels hardly beat anyone of merit this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>UNC went 1-12 in Quad 1 matchups, per BartTorvik.com.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Tar Heels went 0-5 against the ACC&#8217;s other tourney-bound teams (Duke, Clemson, Louisville).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Maybe they&#8217;ll scratch out a win against San Diego State, but I don&#8217;t expect that to happen comfortably. The Aztecs have an elite defence, ranking first in block rate (18.5%) and sixth in eFG% (45.3).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Both KenPom and Bart Torvik project a two-point win for UNC.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>March Madness predictions made at 3:30 p.m. ET on 03\/17\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The very first March Madness action of the year tips off Tuesday with a pair of First Four play-in matchups. The pregame narrative: Can the North Carolina Tar Heels prove their doubters wrong in an 11-vs.-11 matchup? Maybe, but I still expect the San Diego State Aztecs to cover. In the earlier game, fade a [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":334485,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[75],"tags":[21],"class_list":["post-334461","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-basketball","tag-college-basketball-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>March Madness First Four predictions: 2025 | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our March Madness First Four predictions for the 2025 NCAA tournament. 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