{"id":334375,"date":"2025-03-17T11:57:27","date_gmt":"2025-03-17T15:57:27","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=334375"},"modified":"2025-03-17T11:57:28","modified_gmt":"2025-03-17T15:57:28","slug":"march-madness-upset-picks-2025-ncaa-first-round","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/march-madness-upset-picks-2025-ncaa-first-round\/","title":{"rendered":"March Madness 2025 first-round upset picks: UC San Diego, Liberty and Drake are dangerous underdogs"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Upsets are the backbone of what makes March Madness exhilarating. We know we&#8217;ll have some \u2014 it&#8217;s just a matter of picking the right ones.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> The No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons haven&#8217;t lost in two months, and I expect them to keep the good times rolling against the No. 5 Michigan Wolverines. I&#8217;m also backing the No. 12 Liberty Flames and the No. 11 Drake Bulldogs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my March Madness upset picks for the first round of the NCAA tournament.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">March Madness upset picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/basketball\/competitions\/10530\">Full March Madness Markets<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/un-bustable-bracket-challenge\">PLAY NOW: Un-Bustable Bracket Challenge<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: UC San Diego moneyline (+125)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Congratulations, Michigan, on a stellar run to a Big Ten tournament championship.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Your reward is a nightmarish first round matchup that requires you to travel west and face one of NCAA Division I&#8217;s hottest teams.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>UC San Diego is riding the nation&#8217;s longest win streak (15 games) and should be a matchup nightmare for Michigan.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>UCSD had the best turnover margin in D-I this year, averaging a +7.3 turnover advantage per game. The Tritons forced the 8th-most turnovers while allowing the 2nd-fewest. <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Michigan committed the 23rd-most turnovers per game this season and had a -2.7 turnover disadvantage per game.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>UCSD is a much smaller team than Michigan, with no rotation players taller than 6-foot-8 (while the Wolverines have two 7-footers in their starting five). But that shouldn&#8217;t rattle the Tritons&#8217; offensive plans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Tritons are volume shooters from deep, attempting 49.6% of their field goals beyond the 3-point line (eighth-most in D-I).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And in its past 13 games, UCSD is shooting 40.1% from beyond the arc.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keep in mind that Michigan is also at a situational disadvantage, having played in the last pre-tournament game on Sunday before travelling west for Thursday&#8217;s matchup in Denver.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> UC San Diego has the best ATS record in the country (25-7-0) and is 5-1 straight up as an underdog.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">NCAA underdog predictions<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Liberty moneyline (+235):<\/strong> Only two schools finished in the top 10 in both offensive and defensive eFG% \u2014 Duke and &#8230; Liberty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Yes, the Flames benefitted from playing in Conference USA, a one-bid conference that doesn&#8217;t have any other top-100-ranked schools at KenPom.com. But that doesn&#8217;t completely explain away the Flames&#8217; scorching shooters.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Liberty ranks 5th in D-I in 3PT% (39.5). The Flames have five players who shoot 38.9% or better from deep on at least 2.2 attempts.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Flames&#8217; offensive balance is exemplified by Taelon Peter, who leads the team in scoring (13.9 PPG) while coming off the bench. The senior D-II transfer owns a 46.0 3PT% and a 76.1 2PT%.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The No. 5 Oregon Ducks (24-9, 12-8 Big Ten) are a solid team without any glaring losses. But the Flames are a dangerous bunch on offence, and if they get hot enough, the Ducks will have problems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Drake moneyline (+210):<\/strong> Drake is 18-1 since Jan. 8, and its only loss came by two points more than a month ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s great to see how well this team is gelling right now considering the roster was almost completely remade after last year&#8217;s tourney appearance.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>First-year coach Ben McCollum, who led D-II Northwest Missouri State to a dynastic 11 consecutive conference titles, brought three of his best players with him to Drake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Bulldogs have the least D-I experience among the 68-team March Madness field (0.33 years\/player), yet they absolutely dominated a decent Missouri Valley Conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>On the flip side, the No. 6 Missouri Tigers (22-11, 10-8 SEC) had a so-so record in the vaunted SEC. Mizzou went 2-5 down the stretch.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To win as an underdog, you often need to create a disruption of some kind. Drake, which plays at the slowest adjusted tempo in D-I, has the chance to get Missouri off schedule and pull off the upset.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>March Madness upset picks made at 11:50 a.m. ET on 03\/17\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Upsets are the backbone of what makes March Madness exhilarating. We know we&#8217;ll have some \u2014 it&#8217;s just a matter of picking the right ones. The pregame narrative: The No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons haven&#8217;t lost in two months, and I expect them to keep the good times rolling against the No. 5 Michigan [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":334352,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,75],"tags":[21],"class_list":["post-334375","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-college-basketball","tag-college-basketball-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>March Madness upset picks: 2025 first-round underdogs | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our March Madness upset picks for the first round of the 2025 NCAA tournament. 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