{"id":326739,"date":"2025-02-07T12:33:28","date_gmt":"2025-02-07T17:33:28","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=326739"},"modified":"2025-02-07T12:33:28","modified_gmt":"2025-02-07T17:33:28","slug":"super-bowl-lix-long-shot-picks","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/super-bowl-lix-long-shot-picks\/","title":{"rendered":"Super Bowl long shot picks: Bet on A.J. Brown to lead the game in scrimmage yards"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Let&#8217;s take a look at some Super Bowl long shot picks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Saquon Barkley is the alpha dog on Philadelphia&#8217;s offence, but A.J. Brown has value to lead the game in scrimmage yards. I&#8217;m also betting on there to be an &#8220;Octopus&#8221; at +650.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out my Super Bowl bets below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Super Bowl long shot picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/sports\/american_football\/events\/9354345\">Full Super Bowl Markets<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/nfl-injury-report-news\">Super Bowl 59 Injury Report<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/teams\/kc_kansas_city_chiefs_afc_west\/stats\">Kansas City Chiefs Team Stats<\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.com\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/nfl\/teams\/phi_philadelphia_eagles_nfc_east\/stats\">Philadelphia Eagles Team Stats<\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Best bet: Brown to lead the game in scrimmage yards (+750)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Maybe the self-help book worked, or maybe Brown&#8217;s knee is finally feeling healthy. Either way, Philly&#8217;s WR1 balled out in the NFC championship game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>8 targets<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>6 catches<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>96 yards<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>1 touchdown<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brown was still 24 scrimmage yards behind Barkley, who rushed for 118 and added four through the air. Barkley is the obvious candidate to lead the game, and his -250 odds reflect that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Still, I think this is worth a sprinkle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brown has put up 4,031 receiving yards across three seasons with the Eagles, netting out to an average of 85.7 per game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">He has a high floor as a receiver and should feel 100% with an extra week of rest.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Steve Spagnuolo&#8217;s defence is going to throw the house at slowing Philadelphia&#8217;s ground game. Will it work? We&#8217;ll have to see. But I wouldn&#8217;t be surprised if Kellen Moore has to adjust \u2014 especially if the Chiefs take an early lead \u2014 and that should start with feeding No. 11. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Brown had 96 yards against KC in the Super Bowl two years ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> According to RBSDM.com, Kansas City&#8217;s defence was 11th in EPA per rush and 17th in EPA per dropback. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><strong>There to be an Octopus \u2014 yes <\/strong>(+650):<\/strong> If you&#8217;re unfamiliar with an &#8220;Octopus,&#8221; it is when a player scores a touchdown and follows it up by converting the 2-point conversion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">I&#8217;m backing Jalen Hurts to find the end zone as my best Super Bowl bet. You can read about why I like that pick <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/early-super-bowl-bets-2025\">here<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">The Tush Push has become unstoppable, and Hurts scored a hat trick of touchdowns last week. If Philadelphia were to go for two after a TD, there&#8217;s a pretty good chance Philly&#8217;s QB will be calling his own number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Obviously, this doesn&#8217;t happen often, hence the +650 odds.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">But according to Pro Football Reference, Hurts has accomplished this feat twice. And one of those times was against the Chiefs in Super Bowl 57.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">This year, there have been nine instances of an Octopus in the NFL and Saquon Barkley had one of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><em>NFL picks made at 11:54 a.m. on 01\/28\/25.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Let&#8217;s take a look at some Super Bowl long shot picks. The pregame narrative: Saquon Barkley is the alpha dog on Philadelphia&#8217;s offence, but A.J. Brown has value to lead the game in scrimmage yards. I&#8217;m also betting on there to be an &#8220;Octopus&#8221; at +650. Check out my Super Bowl bets below. Super Bowl [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":324293,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452,61],"tags":[181],"class_list":["post-326739","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","category-nfl","tag-nfl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Super Bowl long shot picks: Chiefs vs. Eagles | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Super Bowl long shot picks. 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