{"id":324628,"date":"2025-07-16T13:28:11","date_gmt":"2025-07-16T17:28:11","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=324628"},"modified":"2025-07-21T12:03:29","modified_gmt":"2025-07-21T16:03:29","slug":"blue-jays-mlb-playoff-odds","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/blue-jays-mlb-playoff-odds\/","title":{"rendered":"Blue Jays 2025 MLB playoff odds: Toronto a heavy favourite to reach postseason"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>As MLB&#8217;s hottest team entering the all-star break, the Toronto Blue Jays are ready to compete for a playoff spot in the second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The latest:<\/strong> The Jays went 12-3 in their final 15 games before the Midsummer Classic, moving into sole possession of first place in the AL East as a result. Toronto is far exceeding its preseason expectations and is now a -500 favourite to make the playoffs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the latest Blue Jays playoff odds and win total projection for 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Blue Jays playoff odds<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li><strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/teams\/tor_toronto_blue_jays\/roster?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\">Blue Jays team page<\/a><\/strong><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/baseball\/mlb?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=sportsbook_mlb\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>Full MLB betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/mlb-injury-report?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=injury_reports\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB injury report<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n\n\n\n<li class=\"insights\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/stats\/mlb\/top-players\/hitting\/OPS-on-base_plus_slugging?utm_source=insights&amp;utm_medium=text_link&amp;utm_term=&amp;utm_content=&amp;utm_campaign=stats_pages\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\"><strong>MLB stats &amp; standings<\/strong><\/a><\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:115901\">Embed: #115901<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A lot has changed for the Blue Jays since Opening Day.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Shortly before the season began, Toronto had +220 odds to make the playoffs, which equated to an implied probability of 31.25%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, at -500 odds, the Jays&#8217; implied playoff probability is 83.3%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Here&#8217;s how that compares with the Blue Jays&#8217; playoff odds \u2014 entering July 18 \u2014 as projected by some notable sites:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>FanGraphs: 83.5%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Baseball Prospectus: 89.9%<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Baseball Reference: 72.1%<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Baseball Reference has been the lowest on the Jays from the start, but even it has a fairly strong projection in Toronto&#8217;s favour.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The other two sites are actually more bullish on the Blue Jays than the odds indicate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>If you want reasons for skepticism, they&#8217;re easy to find:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The AL East is the deepest division in baseball. Four of five teams have 50+ wins and are either in a playoff spot or within 1.5 games of one.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Toronto leads the division now, but the team is only 5.5 games out of sinking to fourth place.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Jays&#8217; +17 run differential is tiny for a team that&#8217;s 14 games over .500. There are seven AL teams with a better run differential than that.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Still, Toronto has banked enough wins that it would take a pretty thorough collapse for the postseason to slip away. And the good news is that we haven&#8217;t seen the best version of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. yet.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vladdy has an .818 OPS entering the second half, which is identical to where he was at last year&#8217;s stoppage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Then, in the second half of 2024, he posted a 1.128 OPS after the break. <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/vladimir-guerrero-jr-2025-mlb-midseason-review-and-second-half-outlook\">Don&#8217;t count out a similar second-half surge<\/a> from the five-time all-star.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">2025 win total odds<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:115903\">Embed: #115903<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As you&#8217;d expect, the Blue Jays&#8217; strong showing this year has moved the goalposts for their win total projection.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prior to Opening Day, Toronto&#8217;s over\/under was set at 80.5 wins. Now it&#8217;s eight wins north of that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>FanGraphs projects 88.2 wins for the Jays, while Baseball Prospectus has them slated for 89.7 wins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to Tankathon, Toronto has the 10th-toughest strength of schedule remaining. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Among its tougher matchups are road series vs. the MLB-leading Detroit Tigers (four games) and the reigning champion Los Angeles Dodgers (three games).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto also plays six more games vs. the Yankees.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>To finish with 89 wins, the Blue Jays need to go 34-32 (.515) down the stretch. Based on their current record, they&#8217;re playing at a 92-win pace.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>As MLB&#8217;s hottest team entering the all-star break, the Toronto Blue Jays are ready to compete for a playoff spot in the second half. The latest: The Jays went 12-3 in their final 15 games before the Midsummer Classic, moving into sole possession of first place in the AL East as a result. Toronto is [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":12,"featured_media":358165,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[60],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-324628","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-mlb","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Blue Jays playoff odds and win total for 2025 MLB season | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out the latest Toronto Blue Jays playoff odds and projections for the 2025 MLB season. 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