{"id":323426,"date":"2025-01-24T13:38:03","date_gmt":"2025-01-24T18:38:03","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=323426"},"modified":"2025-01-24T13:38:03","modified_gmt":"2025-01-24T18:38:03","slug":"sabalenka-vs-keys-predictions-australian-open-tennis-picks-womens-final","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/sabalenka-vs-keys-predictions-australian-open-tennis-picks-womens-final\/","title":{"rendered":"Aryna Sabalenka vs. Madison Keys Australian Open women&#8217;s final predictions and odds: Bet on surging American to win a set"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Madison Keys returns to her first Grand Slam final in over seven years to face reigning Australian Open champ Aryna Sabalenka.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> It&#8217;s been an outstanding tournament for Keys, who now has a tall order awaiting in top-ranked Sabalenka. The soaring American is playing with nothing to lose, and I say she can push the WTA&#8217;s No. 1 player to a third set.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Sabalenka vs. Keys predictions for the women&#8217;s final on Jan. 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Sabalenka vs. Keys Australian Open women&#8217;s final predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Go to full Sabalenka vs. Keys <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/event\/1022653016\">betting markets<\/a>.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Keys +1.5 sets (-103)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Taking a set from Sabalenka \u2014 let alone a game \u2014 in Australia has been a huge challenge for any competitor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sabalenka has won her last 20 matches in Melbourne Park and has only dropped two sets en route to a third consecutive Australian Open final.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A lot has changed since Keys last appeared in a Grand Slam final, when she was ousted by Sloane Stephens in straight sets (6-3, 6-0) at the 2017 US Open. Keys admitted that nerves played a big factor, and she&#8217;s now more poised and experienced on this stage.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keys couldn&#8217;t have asked for a better start to 2025. The resilient American, fresh off winning the Adelaide Invitational on Jan. 11, has now strung together 11 straight victories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the semifinal at the Aussie Open, she authored a come-from-behind victory against Iga Swiatek (5-7, 6-1, 7-6[8]).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notable improvements from Keys&#8217; game compared to last season are her returns and defensive play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>Season<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>1st Return Points Won<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Break Points Converted<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Return Games Won<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2024<\/td><td>37.0%<\/td><td>43.6%<\/td><td>37.4%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2025<\/td><td>40.2%<\/td><td>46.2%<\/td><td>42.9%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p>Sabalenka is one of the best servers in the circuit, so carrying over that strong return game will be crucial to Keys finding success here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I also like Keys&#8217; chances from serve. After all, she just brought one of the best returners on tour to a gruelling battle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sabalenka leads the head-to-head matchup, 4-1. In the 2023 US Open semifinal, Keys led 6-0, 5-3 and served for the match before the Belarusian won a third-set tiebreak.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Keys is not your proto-typical No. 14-seed, though. She ranked as high as No. 7 in 2016 before injuries stifled her career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>There&#8217;s no doubt that Sabalenka is the best player on the women&#8217;s circuit. But Keys is playing the best tennis of her career right now. The best value for this contest is for the American to steal a set and make this competitive.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Keys has blasted 54 aces (most in the WTA) and won 71.6% of her first-serve rallies through 14 matches this season.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 11:21 a.m. ET on 01\/24\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Madison Keys returns to her first Grand Slam final in over seven years to face reigning Australian Open champ Aryna Sabalenka. The pregame narrative: It&#8217;s been an outstanding tournament for Keys, who now has a tall order awaiting in top-ranked Sabalenka. The soaring American is playing with nothing to lose, and I say she can [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":31,"featured_media":323434,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[71],"tags":[502,128,129],"class_list":["post-323426","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-tennis","tag-australian-open","tag-tennis","tag-tennis-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Sabalenka vs. Keys predictions: Australian Open women&#039;s final<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Sabalenka vs. Keys predictions for the 2025 Australian Open. 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