{"id":320967,"date":"2025-01-11T14:55:53","date_gmt":"2025-01-11T19:55:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=320967"},"modified":"2025-01-12T08:25:44","modified_gmt":"2025-01-12T13:25:44","slug":"broncos-vs-bills-wild-card-round-sgp-predictions-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/broncos-vs-bills-wild-card-round-sgp-predictions-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Broncos vs. Bills wild-card same-game parlay predictions: Fade Nix, back Buffalo and Kincaid at +410"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The first matchup of Sunday’s NFL wild-card tripleheader features the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Buffalo has dominated at home this season and looks poised to keep up its winning ways in Western New York. My +410 SGP features an alt spread, an alt total and player props for Dalton Kincaid and Bo Nix.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out my Broncos vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Broncos vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n

Go to full<\/strong> NFL betting markets<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Embed: #106026<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Parlay: Bills -3.5 + Over 43.5 points + Kincaid over 3.5 receptions + Nix under 259.5 passing yards (+410)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bills -3.5 (-230):<\/strong> With an MVP-calibre quarterback and wins over both conference’s top seeds, it’s good to be Buffalo right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bills fans have been treated to one thrashing after another on home turf this season, and that could very well be what happens on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Buffalo went 8-0 at home this season, winning by an average margin of 16.6 points at Highmark Stadium.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is nothing new for the Bills, who’ve been the NFL’s best home team since 2020. In that span, they are 39-8 at home with a +11.7 average point differential.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Denver is 1-3 ATS as a road underdog since the start of November.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Other parlay picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n

Over 43.5 points (-200):<\/strong> Overs were collectively 22-11-1 in Bills and Broncos games this season, and this teased-down total is a perfectly attainable line for them to clear.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

    \n
  • BUF went over 43.5 points in 8\/8 home games (average total was 51.9).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
      \n
    • DEN went over 43.5 points in 7\/9 games since Nov. 3 (including 4\/5 road games).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

      Denver ranks No. 1 in defensive EPA per play, according to rbsdm.com, but that hasn’t kept it from playing in some track meets. And against Buffalo’s scorching offence (No. 2 in offensive EPA\/play), I expect plenty of points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Over the previous three postseasons, five of Buffalo’s six games totalled at least 48 points.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Kincaid over 3.5 receptions (-137):<\/strong> Kincaid suffered a knee injury in Week 10 and missed the ensuing three games. He played in three straight games after that on a below-average snap share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      All the while, Buffalo was coasting to a high seed in the AFC. After resting in a meaningless game last Sunday, Kincaid should be a lot closer to full go against the Broncos. He was a full practice participant all week, after all.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

      Despite limited snaps since his return, Kincaid was used plenty in Weeks 15-17:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        \n
      • 28.6% target share on routes run<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • 5.3 targets\/game<\/li>\n\n\n\n
      • 4+ catches in 2\/3 games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

        Denver allowed the ninth-most receptions to tight ends this year (5.6\/game). Kincaid is a safety blanket for Josh Allen, and with additional snaps he’s a strong play at this number. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Nix under 259.5 passing yards (-286):<\/strong> Even if the Broncos chip in on my alt over prediction, I don’t see Nix hitting this yardage target.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

        Nix played six outdoor road games this year, and none of them were pretty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          \n
        • 178.5 pass yards\/game<\/li>\n\n\n\n
        • Under 225 passing yards in 6\/6 games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n

          Given that Nix only averaged 222.1 pass yards per game overall, this line would’ve been suspect regardless. But in Sunday’s hostile road environment, he’s well worth a fade.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

          At home, the Bills held seven of eight opposing QBs to fewer than 259.5 passing yards (the exception was Drake Maye, 261 yards). <\/p>\n\n\n\n

          Picks made at 2:38 p.m. ET on 01\/11\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

          The first matchup of Sunday’s NFL wild-card tripleheader features the Buffalo Bills and Denver Broncos. The pregame narrative: Buffalo has dominated at home this season and looks poised to keep up its winning ways in Western New York. My +410 SGP features an alt spread, an alt total and player props for Dalton Kincaid and […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":320990,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-320967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nBroncos vs. Bills predictions: Wild-card round | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Broncos vs. Bills predictions for the wild-card round. 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