{"id":320392,"date":"2025-01-09T10:52:57","date_gmt":"2025-01-09T15:52:57","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=320392"},"modified":"2025-01-09T10:52:58","modified_gmt":"2025-01-09T15:52:58","slug":"notre-dame-vs-penn-state-cfp-semifinal-sgp-predictions-2025","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/notre-dame-vs-penn-state-cfp-semifinal-sgp-predictions-2025\/","title":{"rendered":"Notre Dame vs. Penn State Orange Bowl SGP predictions: Fade Allar, look for Love to bounce back in CFP semifinal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The College Football Playoff is back on Thursday night with a semifinal matchup between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> One team will emerge from the Orange Bowl and earn a berth in the national championship game. Instead of picking a side, my +390 SGP includes an alt under to go with prop picks on Jordan Faison, Jeremiyah Love and Drew Allar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Notre Dame vs. Penn State same-game parlay predictions for the semifinal CFP matchup on Jan. 9.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Notre Dame vs. Penn State predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Go to full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football\">college football betting markets<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:105754\">Embed: #105754<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Parlay: Under 50.5 points + Faison 30+ receiving yards + Love 30+ rushing yards + Allar under 219.5 passing\/rushing yards (+390)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Under 50.5 points (-240):<\/strong> My favourite straight wager for this game is <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/news\/article\/notre-dame-vs-penn-state-best-bets-college-football-playoff-ncaaf-2025\">the under on the standard line<\/a>, so I had to work a teased-up under into this SGP.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notre Dame and Penn State both wield top-10 scoring defences, allowing a collective 29.4 PPG.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Their defences also seem to thrive where it&#8217;ll matter most on Thursday, too:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ND has 190+ rush yards in 10\/14 games &#8230; but PSU hasn&#8217;t allowed 190 rush yards to any team this season.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Allar has a 67.4% completion rate for PSU &#8230; but ND has the lowest opponent completion rate in the country (50.6%).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Oh, and unders are 2-0 for both of these teams in the CFP so far.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other parlay picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Faison 30+ receiving yards (-215):<\/strong> After being used sparingly in the first eight weeks of the season, something changed for Faison against Navy on Oct. 26.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since that game, Faison has been a consistently productive weapon in the Fighting Irish&#8217;s offence:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>4+ targets in 5\/7 games<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>2+ catches in 7\/7 games<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>42.3 yards\/game<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Faison&#8217;s best work has come in the playoffs, where he has 11 catches for 135 yards. He&#8217;s cashed this bet both times.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The sophomore receiver has been reliable for Notre Dame and should continue to see looks \u2014 especially if the run game breaks down against a ferocious Penn State front. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Love 30+ rushing yards (-245):<\/strong> Speaking of Notre Dame&#8217;s run game &#8230; Love is perfectly capable of clearing this line even if things don&#8217;t go swimmingly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The primary risk with Love is that he tweaked his knee during the CFP quarterfinal round, finishing with just six carries for 19 yards. But there&#8217;ve been some encouraging reports about Love leading up to this game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Though Love was seen wearing a knee brace in practice during the week, he wasn&#8217;t listed on the injury report.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>ND coach Marcus Freeman said Love &#8220;had a good week of practice&#8221; and that he&#8217;ll be &#8220;good to go.&#8221;<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Love has cashed this bet in 12 of 14 games, averaging 76.9 yards on the year. Can he scrounge together half his usual production in a game the Irish have to have? I think so.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Allar under 219.5 passing\/rushing yards (-186):<\/strong> I&#8217;ve already stated my case for the under in this game, but even if Penn State puts up points, it won&#8217;t necessarily need a big effort from Allar.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Nittany Lions have scored 31-plus points in four straight games, and Allar has gone under this number in three of them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Allar&#8217;s toughest test this year came against Ohio State, and he didn&#8217;t fare well. The junior QB completed 12 of 20 passes for 146 yards while adding 31 on the ground.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Notre Dame is in the same tier of defence as Ohio State. The Irish rank No. 1 in defensive EPA per pass, defensive pass success rate and defensive net EPA, per gameonpaper.com.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 2:45 p.m. ET on 01\/09\/2025.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The College Football Playoff is back on Thursday night with a semifinal matchup between the Notre Dame Fighting Irish and Penn State Nittany Lions. The pregame narrative: One team will emerge from the Orange Bowl and earn a berth in the national championship game. Instead of picking a side, my +390 SGP includes an alt [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":320417,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[50],"class_list":["post-320392","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football","tag-college-football-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Notre Dame vs. Penn State predictions: CFP semifinal SGP | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Notre Dame vs. Penn State predictions for the semifinal of the College Football Playoff. 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