{"id":317710,"date":"2024-12-29T15:33:53","date_gmt":"2024-12-29T20:33:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=317710"},"modified":"2024-12-29T15:33:53","modified_gmt":"2024-12-29T20:33:53","slug":"penn-state-vs-boise-state-cfp-quarterfinal-sgp-predictions-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/penn-state-vs-boise-state-cfp-quarterfinal-sgp-predictions-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Penn State vs. Boise State CFP same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Tyler Warren, fade Ashton Jeanty in playoff quarterfinal"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The College Football Playoff quarterfinals begin on New Year&#8217;s Eve in a matchup between No. 6 Penn State and No. 3 Boise State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Penn State had its way with SMU in the first round of the playoff, and I think the Nittany Lions&#8217; defence will show up again in the quarterfinals. My +275 SGP includes a teased-up under, an Ashton Jeanty fade and a prop bet tailing Tyler Warren.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-6c37cb08-cf64-44cf-857a-d9409b9361a5\">Check out my top Penn State vs. Boise State predictions for this quarterfinal CFP matchup on Dec. 31.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-c42e5bcd-3d78-44a9-a94a-015d114981be\">Penn State vs. Boise State predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Go to full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football\">college football betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:104613\">Embed: #104613<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Parlay: Under 57.5 points + Jeanty under 139.5 rushing yards + Warren 60+ receiving yards (+275)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Under 57.5 points (-200):<\/strong> This is a lot of points, especially with one of college football&#8217;s top defences on the field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Penn State ranks inside the top five in both yards allowed (280.1\/game) and points allowed (15.7\/game). <\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The Nittany Lions went under this total in 10 of 14 games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>In fairness, Boise State scored a boatload of points this year (39.1 PPG, third in FBS). But the Broncos played in the defensively inept Mountain West Conference.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boise had the 84th-ranked strength of schedule out of 134 teams, per ESPN. That&#8217;s easily the weakest of the CFP field.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, the Broncos went under this total in six of their past eight games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other parlay picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jeanty under 139.5 rushing yards (-157):<\/strong> I&#8217;ve faded Jeanty before and it blew up in my face. If he fools me twice, the shame is all mine.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Jeanty put up absurd numbers this season, stampeding for 192.1 rush yards per game en route to a runner-up finish in the Heisman Trophy vote.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>With that in mind, how could I possibly fade him at this number?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Well, Penn State&#8217;s defence is a hell of a lot different than what he&#8217;s accustomed to seeing.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PSU ranks 6th in defensive EPA per rush, according to gameonpaper.com.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Only one of Boise&#8217;s opponents ranked inside the top 80 for defensive EPA per rush (UNLV, 38th), and none ranked inside the top 30.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>PSU has only allowed one 100-yard rusher this season (USC&#8217;s Jo&#8217;quavious Marks, 111 yards).<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>The Broncos are double-digit underdogs, which means a negative game script is likely. Jeanty should be very heavily involved no matter what, but I like the Nittany Lions&#8217; chances of selling out and keeping him below his usual yardage. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Warren 60+ receiving yards (-235):<\/strong> At 6-foot-6 and 261 pounds, Warren presents a size mismatch from the tight end position that I don&#8217;t think Boise will be able to handle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Warren is coming off a down week in a blowout win (four catches, 33 yards), but the Nittany Lions should be looking his way on Tuesday night.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Boise State has allowed 256.6 passing yards per game this season. That&#8217;s 113th in the country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Prior to his quiet showing in the CFP first round, Warren cashed this bet in five straight games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The winner of the Mackey Award \u2014 given to college football&#8217;s top tight end \u2014 has averaged 7.7 catches and 89.6 yards over his past seven games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 3:05 p.m. on 12\/29\/24.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The College Football Playoff quarterfinals begin on New Year&#8217;s Eve in a matchup between No. 6 Penn State and No. 3 Boise State. The pregame narrative: Penn State had its way with SMU in the first round of the playoff, and I think the Nittany Lions&#8217; defence will show up again in the quarterfinals. My [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":317728,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[50],"class_list":["post-317710","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football","tag-college-football-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Penn State vs. Boise State predictions: CFP quarterfinal | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Penn State vs. Boise State predictions for the College Football Playoff quarterfinal. 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