{"id":315687,"date":"2024-12-18T11:05:20","date_gmt":"2024-12-18T16:05:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=315687"},"modified":"2024-12-18T12:11:52","modified_gmt":"2024-12-18T17:11:52","slug":"maple-leafs-picks-vs-stars-december-18-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/maple-leafs-picks-vs-stars-december-18-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars Dec. 18: Back Dallas to win and Auston Matthews to score"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>The Toronto Maple Leafs head to the Lone Star State on Wednesday to take on the Dallas Stars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner are slated to play together on Toronto&#8217;s top line tonight. I&#8217;m looking for the captain to score but expect Dallas to win at home.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars for Dec. 18.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights\"><strong>Go to full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/ice_hockey\/nhl\">NHL betting markets<\/a><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:103873\">Embed: #103873<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Stars to win (-129)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto&#8217;s star-studded top line will draw eyeballs, but Dallas is in better shape to win this game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Stars are 13-3-0 at American Airlines Center this season, allowing just 2.00 goals per game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That&#8217;s largely thanks to Jake Oettinger, who has won eight of his last nine home starts. The netminder has shut down some of the league&#8217;s top offences during this run \u2014 with the help of an elite defence, of course:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>3-1 win vs. Capitals on Dec. 16<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>3-1 win vs. Jets on Dec. 1<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>5-3 win vs. Avalanche on Nov. 29<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Oettinger ranks 13th in save percentage (.913) and seventh in goals allowed average (2.33) and plays behind a defence which allows seventh-fewest shots per game (26.9). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Joseph Woll \u2014 who is expected to start for the Maple Leafs tonight \u2014 has even better numbers with a 2.24 GAA (third) and .918 SV% (fifth). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But I&#8217;m banking on some regression tonight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto is allowing the 11th-most expected goals per 60 (3.05) while Dallas is generating the fourth-most expected goals per 60 (3.34), according to Natural Stat Trick.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>At home, I think the Stars can apply enough pressure on the young goaltender to secure a win.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Dallas&#8217; +24 home goal differential is the second-best in the NHL. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Matthews to score (+115):<\/strong> I&#8217;ll take Matthews to score at plus money against just about any team, regardless of how well it plays defensively. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Remember, we&#8217;re talking about a guy who scored 69 goals last year. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Toronto&#8217;s captain is starting to look like himself after missing nine games due to injury. He&#8217;s scored five goals in his last eight games and has at least four shots in five straight. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Matthews&#8217; 15.9 expected goals are the third-most in the NHL, behind only Nico Hischier (15.7) and Kirill Kaprizov (15.9), according to Money Puck. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oettinger and Dallas will be tough to crack but I&#8217;ll ride with the perennial Rocket Richard contender tonight.  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>NHL picks made at 10:21 a.m. ET on 12\/18\/24.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Toronto Maple Leafs head to the Lone Star State on Wednesday to take on the Dallas Stars. The pregame narrative: Auston Matthews, William Nylander and Mitch Marner are slated to play together on Toronto&#8217;s top line tonight. I&#8217;m looking for the captain to score but expect Dallas to win at home. Check out my [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":315737,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[58],"tags":[49],"class_list":["post-315687","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nhl","tag-nhl"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars Dec.18: Predictions &amp; odds | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Maple Leafs picks vs. Stars for Dec. 18. 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