Best Bet: Memphis -4.5 (-120)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThe spread has moved toward Memphis in the days since this matchup was announced, but I still like the Tigers to cover at this number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Memphis is 10-2 on the season, covering a -4.5 spread in all 10 of those victories.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Memphis is one of the rare (and fortunate) college football teams with four years’ worth of stability under centre. Senior quarterback Seth Henigan has thrown for over 3,200 yards in all four seasons as a Tiger, and he has an 11:2 TD-to-INT ratio over his past four games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Throw in South Carolina transfer Mario Anderson at tailback \u2014 who has 165-plus scrimmage yards in five of his past six games \u2014 and you’re looking at an offence that knows how to score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
If Tuesday’s game is a track meet, it’ll be a great advantage to Memphis. The Tigers are averaging 35.2 points per game, while the Mountaineers have exceeded the 35-point mark only twice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
West Virginia fans are probably excited about the return of former coach Rich Rodriguez, but the program is in flux right now. Ex-head coach Neal Brown was fired at the start of the month, and Rodriguez won’t be tasked with coaching the bowl game (nor should he be).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The Mountaineers went 3-4 down the stretch, losing by a double-digit margin in each defeat.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
There’s little proof that WVU can stop an elite offence, as the program allowed 31.1 points during the season (106th out of 134 FBS schools).<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key stat:<\/strong> Memphis’ average margin of victory is 12.4 points. <\/p>\n\n\n\nQuick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Memphis over 31.5 total points (-110):<\/strong> I noted how Henigan and Anderson give the Tigers some star power on offence, which has translated into the No. 19 scoring offence in the country (35.2 PPG).<\/p>\n\n\n\nBut we need to take an extra second to discuss how awful the Mountaineers’ defence has been.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- 106th in opponent scoring (31.1 PPG)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 103rd in opponent yards (410.3 YPG)<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 129th in opponent pass success rate<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 133rd in EPA\/play<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
To make matters worse, West Virginia linebacker Josiah Trotter opted out of the bowl game to hit the transfer portal. He was one of two Mountaineers with 90-plus total tackles this year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In the prop market, see if there’s a way to back Henigan to carve up WVU. As a team, Memphis should be able to put up a big point total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Memphis went over 31.5 points in eight of 12 games. WVU allowed an average of 36.2 PPG over its final six games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Roc Taylor over 69.5 receiving yards (-118):<\/strong> Taylor has averaged exactly 69.5 receiving yards through 12 games and is the clear alpha of Memphis’ receiving corps.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe fourth-year Tiger has seen five-plus targets in every game this season, but the volume really ramped up over the second half.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In his past six games, Taylor has averaged …<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- 9.7 targets<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 5.8 catches<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- 76.5 yards<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
West Virginia ranks 124th out of 134 schools in terms of passing yards allowed (268.9\/game). Taylor, who’s been catching passes from Henigan since 2021, should be in for an above-average output.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Picks made at 3:40 p.m. on 12\/15\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"I’m all over the No. 25 Memphis Tigers in Tuesday’s Frisco Bowl against the West Virginia Mountaineers. The pregame narrative: The Tigers are favourites to beat the Mountaineers, and I’m laying the points. I also think Memphis should be able to exceed its projected point total in a juicy matchup. Check out my top Memphis […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":315344,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[77],"tags":[50],"class_list":["post-315338","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-college-football","tag-college-football-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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