{"id":311551,"date":"2024-11-26T15:14:21","date_gmt":"2024-11-26T20:14:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=311551"},"modified":"2024-11-26T15:14:39","modified_gmt":"2024-11-26T20:14:39","slug":"nfl-prop-picks-thanksgiving-day-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/nfl-prop-picks-thanksgiving-day-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Best NFL prop picks for Thanksgiving Day: Bet on Tagovailoa, Dowdle and Moore on Thursday"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Thursday is Thanksgiving in the United States and the NFL is providing fans with three exciting games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative<\/strong>: Tua Tagovailoa has been on a tear since returning from injury and I like him to keep it going against the Green Bay Packers. In the other games, I&#8217;m siding with prop picks on Rico Dowdle and DJ Moore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out the best NFL prop picks for American Thanksgiving on Nov. 28.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-0a4ee124-09d4-4260-81c9-fd6fe232dbb3\">NFL prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:101582\">Embed: #101582<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights\"><strong>Go to full <\/strong><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football\/nfl\"><strong>NFL Thanksgiving betting markets<\/strong>.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-479767b6-5872-497b-ac44-239c07c7e3d5\"><strong>Best bet: Tagovailoa over 237.5 passing yards (-113)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Since returning from injury, Tagovailoa has been cooking for the Dolphins.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He has 11 TDs and just one INT<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Tua has cleared this line in back-to-back weeks<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>He averaged 302.5 passing yards in those games<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It feels like Tagovailoa is getting back to the gunslinger fans have become accustomed to, as the QB has attempted 36-plus passes in consecutive weeks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Although Green Bay has been good defensively this season, the side allows opposing QBs to complete 65.2% of passes which ranks right in the middle of the pack (16th).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tagovailoa averages 251.4 passing yards per game which is down from last season&#8217;s average of 272.0. I expect the QB to keep building on recent results and finish the season strong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat<\/strong>: Tua is 3-1 against this line in games where he attempted 35 or more passes.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-fa134a48-a478-432b-95e0-66881f0d337b\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Dowdle over 66.5 rushing yards (-117):<\/strong> With both teams turning to backup QBs, I&#8217;ll opt to get behind one of the starting running backs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dowdle came alive last week and ran for 86 yards on 19 attempts in Dallas&#8217; 34-26 upset win over the Washington Commanders.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In fact, let&#8217;s look at Dowdle&#8217;s stats in the other games where he rushed over 12 times:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Week 10: 12 rushes, 53 yards<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Week 9: 12 rushes, 75 yards<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Week 5: 20 rushes, 87 yards<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s clear the key is volume and I think there will be enough against the Giants.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dallas is a 4-point favourite so there&#8217;s reason to believe it will be ahead. If that&#8217;s the case, Dowdle will be responsible for taking care of the ball and running the clock.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dowdle&#8217;s snap share has increased steadily throughout the season (61% last week) so this is a great spot to jump in and tail the Cowboys&#8217; newest lead back.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Moore over 4.5 receptions (-113):<\/strong> The Detroit Lions have a great run defence so the Chicago Bears will more than likely need to pass for success.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>And there&#8217;s no one better to get behind than Moore. He leads the Bears in receptions (54) and targets (80) to this point.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the past two weeks, Moore has 14 catches (seven each week) for 168 yards.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>As Caleb Williams starts to figure it out, his No. 1 receiver is the main beneficiary. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This year&#8217;s first-overall pick has thrown for 571 yards with a 70.5% completion rate across those games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Williams has only turned the ball over once since Week 3 which means lengthier drives and more catch opportunities for Moore.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Even though the Lions allow the fifth-fewest rushing yards (94.9), their secondary is far from elite, giving up the eighth-most passing yards (227.2).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 9:24 a.m. ET on 11\/26\/2024<\/em>.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Thursday is Thanksgiving in the United States and the NFL is providing fans with three exciting games. The pregame narrative: Tua Tagovailoa has been on a tear since returning from injury and I like him to keep it going against the Green Bay Packers. In the other games, I&#8217;m siding with prop picks on Rico [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":19,"featured_media":311607,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-311551","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>NFL prop picks, predictions for 2024 American Thanksgiving | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our best NFL prop picks for American Thanksgiving. 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