{"id":311250,"date":"2024-11-25T10:31:50","date_gmt":"2024-11-25T15:31:50","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=311250"},"modified":"2024-11-25T10:31:51","modified_gmt":"2024-11-25T15:31:51","slug":"ravens-vs-chargers-week-12-prop-picks-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/ravens-vs-chargers-week-12-prop-picks-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Ravens vs. Chargers Week 12 MNF prop picks: Bet on Lamar Jackson to score, Will Dissly to stay involved"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are on the road to face Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in a Grade-A matchup on Monday Night Football.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> Jackson hasn&#8217;t found the end zone often this year, but I like his anytime touchdown price in a game with a high scoring upside. I&#8217;m also backing a pair of tight ends \u2014 Mark Andrews and Will Dissly \u2014 to clear their respective yardage totals.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Ravens vs. Chargers prop picks for Monday Night Football on Nov. 25.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Ravens vs. Chargers prop picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong><strong>Go to full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football\/nfl\">NFL betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:101437\">Embed: #101437<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Andrews over 29.5 receiving yards (-127)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A yardage total like this would&#8217;ve seemed mysteriously low for Andrews in any of his previous five seasons.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The three-time Pro Bowler averaged 50+ yards per game over each of those years.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>All told from 2019-23, Andrews averaged 4.9 catches and 60.6 yards.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>This year, Andrews is only averaging 2.9 catches and 34.5 yards through 11 games.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>I like this as a buy-low spot for Andrews, especially because his season-long dips are a bit misleading. What it really comes down to is some puzzlingly low usage from Weeks 1-4.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Andrews only had 65 total yards in that four-game span. He was held without a catch in Weeks 3-4 while seeing just two total targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>From Week 5 onward, Andrews has looked more like his old self: 3.7 catches\/game, 44.9 yards\/game and a 21.0% target rate per route.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Isaiah Likely isn&#8217;t going anywhere, but Andrews no longer appears to be ceding all the tight end work to his younger teammate. Andrews has had a higher snap share than Likely in each of the Ravens&#8217; past four games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Andrews will only need a couple of catches to at least have a shot at this over. He&#8217;s caught multiple passes in seven straight games and has a high enough floor for me to find some value here.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Andrews has accrued 30-plus receiving yards in five of his past seven games (and he has 20-plus receiving yards in all seven).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Quick pick<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Dissly over 39.5 receiving yards (-134):<\/strong> Dissly&#8217;s involvement in the Chargers&#8217; offence exploded after their Week 5 bye, and now he&#8217;s drawing a great matchup. I want in.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out Dissly&#8217;s per-game averages before and after L.A.&#8217;s bye week:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Pre-bye (four games): 2.5 targets, 2.3 catches, 21.3 yards, 11.1% target share<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Post-bye (six games): 6.3 targets, 4.7 catches, 44.5 yards, 21.7% target share<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>An overwhelming increase in route involvement has directly correlated to across-the-board statistical improvements. Go figure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For context, Dissly ran 27 <em>total<\/em> routes in Weeks 1-4 and has <em>averaged<\/em> 22.5 routes\/game since the bye. A target share about 20.0%  and above puts him in the same realm as A.J. Brown, Cooper Kupp and Terry McLaurin. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Now, Dissly faces a Ravens squad that allows the second-most receiving yards per game to opposing tight ends (66.9). This should be a smash play.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Jackson anytime TD (+165):<\/strong> Jackson only has two rushing touchdowns this year, but they both came in the past four weeks. In a game with a sky-high over\/under (50.5 points), he should be in a position to score.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Typically, when the Ravens are near the goal line, they just give the ball to Derrick Henry. And who am I to fault them for that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>But the Chargers have only allowed three rushing TDs all year (least in the NFL), so the Ravens might have to be a bit more creative to get the ball across the line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Also, Jackson&#8217;s rushing volume has still been solid this season despite a lack of scores. He has 40-plus rush yards in nine of 11 games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The goal line carries have been lacking, but Jackson does have 14 red zone carries so far. His opportunities are more fruitful than it seems.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 10:10 a.m. ET 11\/25\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Lamar Jackson and the Baltimore Ravens are on the road to face Justin Herbert and the Los Angeles Chargers in a Grade-A matchup on Monday Night Football. The pregame narrative: Jackson hasn&#8217;t found the end zone often this year, but I like his anytime touchdown price in a game with a high scoring upside. I&#8217;m [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":311288,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-311250","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Ravens vs. Chargers prop picks &amp; predictions: Week 12 | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our top Ravens vs. Chargers prop picks for Week 12. 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