{"id":308561,"date":"2024-11-15T14:19:21","date_gmt":"2024-11-15T19:19:21","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=308561"},"modified":"2024-11-15T14:19:21","modified_gmt":"2024-11-15T19:19:21","slug":"chiefs-vs-bills-week-11-sgp-predictions-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/chiefs-vs-bills-week-11-sgp-predictions-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"Chiefs vs. Bills Week 11 same-game parlay predictions: Bet on Kelce to shine but Buffalo to win"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen doesn&#8217;t get old and we&#8217;re treated to another showdown this Sunday when the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> I expect Allen to have an impact as a runner and help lead his Bills to victory at home. This three-leg, +420 SGP also includes a receiving prop on Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Check out my Chiefs vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions for Week 11 below.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Chiefs vs. Bills same-game parlay predictions<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Go to full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football\/nfl\">NFL betting markets<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Parlay: Bills moneyline + Allen over 32.5 rushing yards + Kelce over 66.5 receiving yards (+420)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><a href=\"cacheembed:100502\">Embed: #100502<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bills moneyline (-130):<\/strong> The playoff agonies are what people remember most, but it hasn&#8217;t been all heartache for the Bills when they face the Chiefs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Buffalo is 3-0 straight up \u2014 and ATS \u2014 in its past three regular-season matchups against Kansas City.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>That might not salve any wounds for Bills fans, but it&#8217;s a reminder that this isn&#8217;t a one-sided rivalry in the Allen\/Mahomes era.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>This season, despite the Chiefs&#8217; 9-0 record, the Bills (8-2) have often looked like a better overall team.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Buffalo: 3rd in offensive EPA\/play, 10th in defensive EPA\/play, +97 point differential<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Kansas City: 11th in offensive EPA\/play, 11th in defensive EPA\/play, +58 point differential<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Buffalo is 19-4 at home since the start of the 2022 season. I expect another win for the Bills on Sunday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\">Other parlay picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Allen over 32.5 rushing yards (-118):<\/strong> This feels like a good week to see an outsized rushing effort from Allen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Why? For one thing, his two leading red zone targets (Keon Coleman and Dalton Kincaid) were ruled out. Also, Allen has been known to run wild against Kansas City.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In five matchups against the Chiefs since 2021 \u2014 including playoffs \u2014 here&#8217;s what Allen has accomplished on the ground:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>11.2 rush attempts\/game<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>52.6 rush yards\/game<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>4 TDs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Allen&#8217;s low-water mark in those games was 32 rush yards (twice). He had 10-plus attempts in each game.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Quarterback rushing stats can be unpredictable, but five games against one opponent in a three-season span is a healthy sample. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After turning eight carries into 50 yards last week, look for Allen to stay involved against a familiar foe.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Kelce over 66.5 receiving yards (-113):<\/strong> Folks, here comes Travis Kelce.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>After just 69 total receiving yards through his first three games, Kelce has 60-plus yards in five of his past six. And he&#8217;s doing his best work since Week 8.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>12+ targets in three straight games<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>8+ catches in three straight games<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>84.7 yards\/game<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s no coincidence that Week 8 is when DeAndre Hopkins debuted with the Chiefs. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>His presence has given defences another serious threat to worry about \u2014 leaving Kelce with a greater sum of winnable matchups.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Over the previous three seasons, Kelce went 4-1 against this receiving yards total when facing the Bills. He averaged 83.8 yards\/game in those matchups on 9.0 targets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 2:00 p.m. on 11\/15\/24.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Patrick Mahomes versus Josh Allen doesn&#8217;t get old and we&#8217;re treated to another showdown this Sunday when the Buffalo Bills host the Kansas City Chiefs. The pregame narrative: I expect Allen to have an impact as a runner and help lead his Bills to victory at home. This three-leg, +420 SGP also includes a receiving [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":308699,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[61],"tags":[14],"class_list":["post-308561","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-nfl","tag-nfl-betting"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>Chiefs vs. Bills predictions: Week 11 | NorthStar Bets<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our Chiefs vs. Bills SGP predictions for Week 11. 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