{"id":305798,"date":"2024-11-01T12:47:34","date_gmt":"2024-11-01T16:47:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/?p=305798"},"modified":"2024-11-01T12:47:34","modified_gmt":"2024-11-01T16:47:34","slug":"college-football-picks-props-predictions-week-10-2024","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/cms.northstargaming.ca\/admin\/nsgcms\/college-football-picks-props-predictions-week-10-2024\/","title":{"rendered":"College football Week 10 picks and predictions: NCAAF best bets on Oregon&#8217;s Tez Johnson, Indiana&#8217;s Justice Ellison"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p>Looking to build off a 3-for-3 showing last week, I&#8217;m back with some college football picks for Week 10 action.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>The pregame narrative:<\/strong> The Vanderbilt Commodores have my attention once again as curiously long underdogs against the Auburn Tigers. I&#8217;m also bullish on the shootout potential of Texas Tech against Iowa State.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p id=\"block-6c37cb08-cf64-44cf-857a-d9409b9361a5\">Check out the best college football Week 10 picks for the action on Nov. 2.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-c42e5bcd-3d78-44a9-a94a-015d114981be\">College football Week 10 picks<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"insights\"><em>Click linked odds to add selection to betslip. Note: Lines have changed\/market no longer available if grey.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-table\"><table class=\"has-fixed-layout\"><tbody><tr><td><strong>NCAAF Week 10 picks<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Odds<\/strong><\/td><td><strong>Bet now \u2b07\ufe0f<\/strong><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Vanderbilt +7.5<\/td><td>-110<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/event\/1020952012?coupon=combination|3553959433|0|replace\">Add to betslip<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Johnson over 89.5 rec. yards<\/td><td>-127<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/event\/1020952002?coupon=combination|3556070851|0|replace\">Add to betslip<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ellison over 74.5 rush yards<\/td><td>-109<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/event\/1020951998?coupon=combination|3556444191|0|replace\">Add to betslip<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TTU\/Iowa State over 56.5 pts<\/td><td>-113<\/td><td><a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/event\/1020952021?coupon=combination|3553917152|0|replace\">Add to betslip<\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Go to full <a href=\"https:\/\/www.northstarbets.ca\/sportsbook\/sports-hub\/american_football\">college football betting markets<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Best Bet: Vanderbilt +7.5 (-110)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I can&#8217;t quit Vanderbilt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>For the third time this season, I love how many points the Commodores are getting as underdogs. They&#8217;ve covered for me twice before (at Kentucky, vs. Texas) and I expect them to do so again.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vanderbilt is 6-2 ATS this year, which includes a 5-0 ATS record as underdogs. No other NCAA program has a perfect ATS underdog record with at least five covers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The Commodores aren&#8217;t white-knuckling their way to covers, either. They&#8217;ve blown a lot of sizeable spreads out of the water:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>vs. Texas: 27-24 L as 17-point underdogs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>at Kentucky: 20-13 W as 13-point underdogs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>vs. Alabama: 40-35 W as 23-point underdogs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>at Missouri: 30-27 L as 17.5-point underdogs<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>vs. Virginia Tech: 34-27 W as 13-point underdogs<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>To put it another way, Vanderbilt has been 13.5 points <em>clear<\/em> of the spread in every game as an underdog. And now it&#8217;ll face a very familiar opponent.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vandy coach Jerry Kill and quarterback Diego Pavia previously teamed up for two seasons at New Mexico State, where they faced coach Hugh Freeze (formerly with Liberty, now with Auburn) twice.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In 2022, Pavia had three TD passes to help New Mexico State upset Liberty, 49-14. The Aggies were 23-point underdogs in that game. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In the following season, Freeze left Liberty for Auburn &#8230; but he couldn&#8217;t leave Pavia and Kill behind. New Mexico State won again \u2014 this time as 25-point dogs \u2014 behind another three TD passes from Pavia.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>It&#8217;s been a magical season for Vanderbilt, and I wouldn&#8217;t put it past Pavia and Co. to pull the upset and clinch bowl eligibility. But I&#8217;m far more eager to bank a touchdown plus the hook on Saturday.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Key stat:<\/strong> Auburn is 1-3 ATS in its past four home games, and it lost three of those games straight up as the favourite.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"block-c1e817ca-a7f4-4be8-8332-7ac0c6f20f4b\">Quick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Tez Johnson over 89.5 receiving yards (-127):<\/strong> Oregon Ducks quarterback Dillon Gabriel is on a Heisman Trophy hunt, and I expect his favourite target to help keep him rolling.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Johnson has 63 catches through eight games, which is more than twice the total of any other Oregon player. He&#8217;s cashed this bet in three of his past six games, averaging 93.0 yards in that span.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Michigan&#8217;s run defence is still a problem for opponents, but the pass defence has been porous this season. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Star cornerback Will Johnson \u2014 widely believed to be a first-round NFL draftee in April \u2014 missed last week and is questionable for Saturday. That could lead to plenty of matchup issues that work in the favour of Oregon&#8217;s Tez Johnson. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Justice Ellison over 74.5 rushing yards (-109):<\/strong> QB Kurtis Rourke is back under centre for No. 13 Indiana this week, which is great news for the Hoosiers. And though that&#8217;ll likely mean fewer carries for Ellison, I still like his chances of clearing this line.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Rourke suffered a thumb injury two weeks ago that required surgery. He sat out last week and watched Ellison put in some serious work from the backfield: 29 carries, 123 yards, one TD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ellison has now eclipsed the 100-yard mark three times this season and is averaging a healthy 6.2 yards\/rush. This week, the Hoosiers face the Michigan State Spartans, who&#8217;ve allowed 5.2 yards\/rush over their past four games.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>In Rourke&#8217;s first game back after surgery on his throwing hand, could the Hoosiers look to keep the ground game rolling? I think so, especially since Ellison is hot and the matchup is right.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Texas Tech\/Iowa State over 56.5 points (-113):<\/strong> The Iowa State Cyclones have only allowed 14.4 points\/game, but that has a lot to do with the quality of their competition.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>According to ESPN, the Cyclones&#8217; strength of schedule to this point ranks 88th in the nation. Beating up on teams like Houston, Arkansas State and North Dakota doesn&#8217;t mean their defence is impenetrable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Enter the Texas Tech Red Raiders, who boast the No. 16 scoring offence (38.1 PPG). Combined with a dreadful defence (36.0 PPG, 123rd in NCAA football), the Red Raiders are built to hit overs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>All eight of Texas Tech&#8217;s games have finished with 50-plus total points, and five of them cleared this total.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>I know Iowa State has a solid offence, led by QB Rocco Becht, and I think Texas Tech has enough firepower to make this an explosive matchup.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>The over is 9-6 for Texas Tech and Iowa State combined this season, according to Covers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>Picks made at 12:20 p.m. on 11\/01\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Looking to build off a 3-for-3 showing last week, I&#8217;m back with some college football picks for Week 10 action. The pregame narrative: The Vanderbilt Commodores have my attention once again as curiously long underdogs against the Auburn Tigers. I&#8217;m also bullish on the shootout potential of Texas Tech against Iowa State. Check out the [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":7,"featured_media":305825,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[78],"tags":[217,259,448],"class_list":["post-305798","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-ncaaf","tag-college-football","tag-ncaaf","tag-ncaaf-picks"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v22.0 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/wordpress\/plugins\/seo\/ -->\n<title>College football Week 10 picks, props and predictions | NSB<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Check out our college football Week 10 picks, props and predictions. 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