Best bet: Yamamoto over 14.5 outs (-125)<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\nThis is a huge spot for Yamamoto but I trust the rookie sensation to deliver. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
The righty was in a higher-leverage situation two starts ago in a winner-take-all Game 5 of the NLDS. He allowed just two hits and no runs over 5.0 IP to the San Diego Padres before Dave Roberts turned to his elite bullpen. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
I’m not suggesting the Dodgers will give Yamamoto a long leash simply to preserve their bullpen. L.A. used five relievers in yesterday’s extra-inning win and would be fine emptying the tank with an off day on Sunday. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
Still, Yamamoto should be able to top this number.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Prior to landing on the IL in June \u2014 and excluding the game he left versus the Kansas City Royals early with an injury \u2014 he had gone over this mark in 12 of 13 starts. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
One of those was against the Yankees when he allowed just four baserunners over seven scoreless frames. Yamamoto has been on a bit of a pitch count since but threw a postseason-high 73 pitches against the New York Mets in his lone NLCS start.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Outside of a two-run blast from Giancarlo Stanton, New York’s bats were stymied by Jack Flaherty yesterday. With Judge lost at the plate, I’m not too scared of the Bronx Bombers erupting.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Key stat:<\/strong> Three of the last four starters against New York have cleared this line.<\/p>\n\n\n\nQuick picks<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
Ohtani over 1.5 bases (+110):<\/strong> I was thinking about backing Ohtani to score at -127 but believe this holds much better value.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe Dodgers’ leadoff man has cleared this wager in five straight playoff games and was dangerously close to taking Gerrit Cole deep on the first pitch he saw last night. <\/p>\n\n\n\n
He’s batting a respectable .277 in the playoffs and is 1-for-3 against Yankees starter Carlos Rodon with a home run.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rodon gives up a lot of hard contact, ranking in the 32nd percentile for hard-hit rate and fourth percentile for barrel rate on Baseball Savant. I think Ohtani takes him for a ride.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Judge under 1.5 bases (-143)<\/strong>: Judge has a few games to turn things around but if he can’t, and New York loses, the narratives surrounding him will be ugly \u2014 and deservingly so.<\/p>\n\n\n\nThe soon-to-be AL MVP is batting .167 this postseason with three extra-base hits and 16 strikeouts in 10 games. That’s awful. It’s even worse when you consider he’s been a postseason letdown nearly his entire career.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Check out Judge’s career postseason\/regular-season splits:<\/p>\n\n\n\n
\n- Postseason: .288\/.406\/.604 slash line<\/li>\n\n\n\n
- Regular season: .203\/.309\/.444 slash line<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n
He went 1-for-5 with a single and three strikeouts last night and is now 3-7 against this line in the playoffs. We can lose this wager with one swing of the bat but I can’t trust Judge right now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET 10\/25\/2024.<\/em><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"The Los Angeles Dodgers and New York Yankees are back in action after an electric start to the World Series. The pregame narrative: Freddie Freeman hit a no-doubt, walk-off grand slam to secure Game 1 for Los Angeles. Tonight, I expect Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Shohei Ohtani to contribute for the Dodgers while fading a struggling […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":304094,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"sidebar_plugin_meta_block_field":"","footnotes":""},"categories":[452],"tags":[130],"class_list":["post-304122","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-com","tag-mlb"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\n
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